Hints and tips:
...Wei Yao and Michelle Lam at SocGen say what happens next is… basically up to the politburo: The zero-COVID shock and the housing crash last year seem to have brought China’s implicit government debt stress...
...Here are some quotes from a Caixin story entitled “China Regulators Roll Out Property Rescue for Embattled Developers”: “China’s housing rescue is finally here,” Société Générale Group economists Yao Wei...
...Wei Yao, an economist at Société Générale, thinks it will....
...Wei Yao and Stephen Gallagher, analysts at Société Générale, said earlier in the week that their confidence had grown that fresh US tariff increases on China would be delayed and “prolonged talks” were likely...
...Yao and Michelle Lam said....
...Yao Wei, chief China economist at Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking, said: “More signs of economic slowdown have emerged as deleveraging policies start to bite.”...
...But there is Taiwan, there is North Korea, there are other issues,” said Major General Yao Yunzhu, director emeritus of the Centre on China-America Defence Relations at the Academy of Military Science in...
...Société Générale economist Wei Yao said: The financial deleveraging campaign since early 2017 has resulted in a massive negative shock to aggregate credit supply....
...Wùshìrénfēi was scheduled to open at 859 Tian Yao Qiao Road, Shanghai, on September 4 1999. But, on the day of the opening, it was abruptly shuttered by the Chinese authorities....
...Mr Liu’s wife, Lai Wei’e, who organised his legal defence in 2008, and his eldest son Zhaoxing have also been caught up in the latest case against him....
...“The Chinese government has turned very serious about fighting pollution,” SocGen’s chief China economist Yao Wei wrote in a note this month....
...From SocGen’s Wei Yao, with our emphasis: … asset price appreciation seems to be worryingly unstoppable....
...Last month the country’s insurance regulator banned Mr Yao from the sector for 10 years....
...As Wei Yao says: We do not think the PBoC can afford to hike its policy rate to tame housing inflation this time....
...Which it looks like is what’s happening… From SocGen’s always excellent Wei Yao, with our emphasis: In our view, the most obvious underlying factor behind this recovery is credit....
...From SocGen’s Wei Yao: A 50bp RRR cut could free up close to RMB700bn in liquidity, which would offset the liquidity impact of roughly $100bn in declines in official FX reserves....
...“They understand the peril of excessive debt build-up and do not wish to pursue growth acceleration just for the sake of it,” Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale, said in a note....
...“The PBoC’s war chest is sizeable, no doubt, but not unlimited,” Wei Yao, China economist at Société Générale, wrote recently....
...But, as SocGen’s Wei Yao says: There was no surprise from the 5th plenum of China’s Communist Party....
...As SocGen’s Wei Yao said in a 2014 update to their hard landing report: “The easy but dangerous choice would be for Beijing to repeat the post-Lehman package of massive state-driven lending and investment...
...“The battle to stabilise the currency has had a significant tightening effect on domestic liquidity conditions,” said Wei Yao, economist at Société Générale, in a note....
...Here’s SocGen’s Wei Yao, with our emphasis: Both lending rates and deposit rates have been fully liberalised, the PBoC has officially given up all its existing policy rates....
...As SocGen’s Wei Yao says (with our emphasis): The PBoC has not offered any headline easing measure since the RRR and interest rate cuts on 25 August, but banks are doing its bidding....
...As Wei Yao says, it’s the currency, and, as Citi say, the idea that the “prospect of further exchange rate depreciation should boost capital outflows”....
...SocGen’s China watcher in chief Wei Yao suggests that this is perhaps more important to real growth than the normally fixated-upon M2....
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