Hints and tips:
...*Update: G-Research’s Oli Withers also got all three right, but his email landed after we started the winner’s post. He’s already won twice anyway, so the hat-trick will have to come some other time....
...Market impact from the option-driven funds is more likely to be visible in nuanced vol-market metrics (e.g. correlation) than in overall market volatility....
...However, if this is a proverbial Santa rally it looks more like the Billy Bob Thornton version than Edmund Gwenn....
Did Kenny G call the top?
...M&G Investments thinks interest rates are going down, but not by much (and predicts a “new era for active management,” lol) “Flux” is also a favourite word of Lazard, whose 2024 outlook at least features...
...To be fair to Kenny G, his position is more nuanced than this quote would suggest (even if we think there’s an element of Rorschach’s “you’re locked in here with me” vibe here)....
...There are also potentially profits from other Riksbank holdings, e.g. gold and the FX reserve in general which could limit the size of the capital injection, although this is uncertain given discrepancies...
...real interest expense and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio look much worse than just a couple of years ago, when the interest rate on government debt (r) was expected to remain well below nominal GDP growth (g)...
...LLMs are generally large portions of the Internet, the quality of LLM responses especially on very specialised topics can be incorrect because the type of text where the “correct” knowledge is stored (e.g....
...That exemption is subject to the following conditions: (1) the issuer of the relevant debt securities (e.g. CS’s bail-in-bonds) and the new equity securities (e.g....
...We estimate that market implied r - g, the difference between real interest rates and growth rates, is now positive for many countries....
...More recent studies that measure productivity through complex performance metrics and draw evidence from industries involving high-cognitive tasks (e.g. IT services) reveal more negative effects....
...Alphaville’s emphasis below: In recent weeks, we see mounting financial risks from the property sector (e.g., Country Garden), the shadow banking sector (e.g. Zhongrong Trust), and LGFVs....
...our emphasis below: Following the regional banking crisis earlier this year, markets took an optimistic view: soft landing became a consensus, European stocks rallied at the back of China reopening (e.g....
...Second, the FCI-G includes the Zillow monthly index of house prices and mortgage rates, which our FCI does not include....
...“AI works on old designs, so if you want to merge two existing influences and match a G-Shock with a Tag Heuer, it’s good for that, but it can’t create something new,” he says....
...(HT M&G’s Gregory Smith): Between January and November 2022, Cameroon’s government made late payments on long-term, foreign currency (FC) commercial debt constituting a selective default (SD) according...
...Robin Wigglesworth Yeah, Alphaville once auctioned off a “Draghi says relax” T-shirt. Alexandra Scaggs Yeah. Robin Wigglesworth To the head of fixed income at M&G for charity....
...I had just googled G for genista plants in Britain and found none when I noticed green fluff, like the first hair on a young man’s cheek, breaking out on my Etna broom’s inner branches: thankfully, the tree...
We just live in it
...Read the excellent analysis by my colleagues Kana Inagaki and Robin Harding to understand what lies ahead for Japanese monetary policy, including helpful charts such as the one below....
...This in turn drives buying of stocks by funds that mechanically increase exposure when volatility declines (e.g. volatility targeting and risk parity funds)....
...As well as its first tour with more generous funding, the company has a new general director in Robin Norton-Hale....
...As a matter of practice, short-dated coupons (e.g. 1-year and less) don’t get used as repo collateral very often, and probably comprise a small amount of MMF repo collateral....
...We believe it is likely to be pre resolution as it would have implications for the broader market, Switzerland as a financial center as well as Global Financial institutions as CSG is a G-SIB, hence the...
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