Hints and tips:
...Ed Morse, head of the commodities team at Citi, stands well outside this consensus. How far outside?...
...Overall “the recovery in the house market has so far been V-shaped”, said Hansen Lu, property economist at Capital Economics, a consultancy....
...Just 30% expect a V shaped recovery in the stock market....
...While here in London we’ll help the British Museum, the Science Museum, and the V&A move their collections out of storage and on display....
...Robert Wood, Berenberg Bank Yes, in all likelihood a more than decent pace of expansion....
...bond that was central to the economic turmoil, according to people close to the inquiry… Regulators are investigating whether traders exploited the murky pricing around residential mortgage-backed securities...
...Several investigations into the sale of CDOs and residential mortgage-backed securities are under way. Two other bankers who were sued in connection with CDO sales are fighting the allegations....
...Willem Buiter, Citi: Bad question....
...The SEC alleged that Citi was negligent in failing to tell investors in a $1bn CDO – known as Class V Funding III – that the bank had helped to select $500m of mortgage assets that went into the security...
...The settlement also requires remedial action by Citigroup in its review and approval of offerings of certain mortgage-related securities....
...While the Funding for Lending scheme may ease mortgage borrowing conditions, a sustained recovery in residential investment is unlikely until prospects for the wider economy improve....
...Ben Bernanke’s is a good model to follow Robert Wood, Berenberg Bank: No. Though they seem likely to begin a consultation on alternative options. No....
...By 2007, however, the fund was almost entirely invested in subprime residential mortgage-backed securities and derivatives....
...The most buying in recent months has taken place in the triple A rated tranches of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) - structured deals which are backed...
...Robert Barrie, Credit Suisse We expect a strong and sustained recovery. It probably started about six months ago....
..., not just mortgage payments relief)....
...Michael Saunders, Citi There have been almost no winners from the crisis other than insolvency experts....
...But the Bank of England, for instance, in its latest Financial Stability Report, argues in effect that prime UK residential mortgage-backed securities are under-priced on a worst-case scenario....
...More immediately, Wells is set to take on Wachovia’s $312bn portfolio of troubled residential and commercial mortgage debt, on which Wells expects to take a $74bn writedown....
...“V-shaped” recoveries, in which employment comes roaring back, take place only when there’s a lot of pent-up demand....
...This would be devastating as higher gilt yields translated into higher mortgage rates would cause huge problems for over-indebted UK households and banks exposed to the mortgage market....
...Robert Barrie, Credit Suisse The irony is, of course, that UK residential property has not done as badly as many other assets over the past year....
...The same thing is concerning lots of market participants now, in that ABS CDOs have a very high exposure to the residential mortgage-backed securities market....
...Carlyle borrowed $31 for every $1 of its own money, which it used to buy a portfolio of highly rated residential mortgage securities....
...A V-shaped recession is certainly quite possible....
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