Hints and tips:
...*Update: G-Research’s Oli Withers also got all three right, but his email landed after we started the winner’s post. He’s already won twice anyway, so the hat-trick will have to come some other time....
...Market impact from the option-driven funds is more likely to be visible in nuanced vol-market metrics (e.g. correlation) than in overall market volatility....
Did Kenny G call the top?
...There could of course still be some bodies that float to the surface, but the New York Federal Reserve’s Michael Fleming has now done some more data grunt work to show that the Treasury market’s liquidity...
...M&G Investments thinks interest rates are going down, but not by much (and predicts a “new era for active management,” lol) “Flux” is also a favourite word of Lazard, whose 2024 outlook at least features...
...Honourable mentions to Amy Thomas, Caspar Fleming, Maher Sayegh, Thibaut Nantes and Gabriel Littler, who guessed new orders of the services PMI, rather than the composite....
...To be fair to Kenny G, his position is more nuanced than this quote would suggest (even if we think there’s an element of Rorschach’s “you’re locked in here with me” vibe here)....
...There are also potentially profits from other Riksbank holdings, e.g. gold and the FX reserve in general which could limit the size of the capital injection, although this is uncertain given discrepancies...
...real interest expense and the federal debt-to-GDP ratio look much worse than just a couple of years ago, when the interest rate on government debt (r) was expected to remain well below nominal GDP growth (g)...
...LLMs are generally large portions of the Internet, the quality of LLM responses especially on very specialised topics can be incorrect because the type of text where the “correct” knowledge is stored (e.g....
...That exemption is subject to the following conditions: (1) the issuer of the relevant debt securities (e.g. CS’s bail-in-bonds) and the new equity securities (e.g....
...“Investors have always worried about government debt and it’s never been a problem, but this time it feels like it’s for real,” said Jim Leaviss, chief investment officer of public fixed income at M&G Investments...
...We estimate that market implied r - g, the difference between real interest rates and growth rates, is now positive for many countries....
...More recent studies that measure productivity through complex performance metrics and draw evidence from industries involving high-cognitive tasks (e.g. IT services) reveal more negative effects....
...Alphaville’s emphasis below: In recent weeks, we see mounting financial risks from the property sector (e.g., Country Garden), the shadow banking sector (e.g. Zhongrong Trust), and LGFVs....
...our emphasis below: Following the regional banking crisis earlier this year, markets took an optimistic view: soft landing became a consensus, European stocks rallied at the back of China reopening (e.g....
...Second, the FCI-G includes the Zillow monthly index of house prices and mortgage rates, which our FCI does not include....
...“AI works on old designs, so if you want to merge two existing influences and match a G-Shock with a Tag Heuer, it’s good for that, but it can’t create something new,” he says....
...(HT M&G’s Gregory Smith): Between January and November 2022, Cameroon’s government made late payments on long-term, foreign currency (FC) commercial debt constituting a selective default (SD) according...
...Robin Wigglesworth Yeah, Alphaville once auctioned off a “Draghi says relax” T-shirt. Alexandra Scaggs Yeah. Robin Wigglesworth To the head of fixed income at M&G for charity....
...Blame Robin for this one, which shows the Norwegian central bank’s interest rate. It seems someone is levered long Norway real estate....
...Ian Fleming chose the name Bond for his spy because he thought it was “the dullest name I’ve ever heard”....
...I had just googled G for genista plants in Britain and found none when I noticed green fluff, like the first hair on a young man’s cheek, breaking out on my Etna broom’s inner branches: thankfully, the tree...
We just live in it
...MainFT’s Sam Fleming spoke to the Guv’nor following the March Monetary Policy Committee meeting, with Bailey revealing that the BoE’s infamous fan charts are not long for this world: A growing number of...
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