Hints and tips:
...Some recent data from managed pubs indicated that 42% of pubs and bars opened on the 4th July w/e; of those that opened, trade was -45% vs prior year w/e. US - strong off-trade....
...Or does a U, W — or dreaded L — shape loom? Instead, the shorthand symbol for ‘bank’ seems relevant, particularly given the Fed’s powerful response....
...We hope that they w ill maintain discipline, and w e draw comfort from the fact that RBS states it is only lending (under government-backed schemes) “to our own customers and within risk appetite”....
...[W]e look at the net interest income movements in HSBC’s key currencies (USD, HKD, GBP)....
...[W]hile we do not attempt to forecast the spread of the outbreak itself, our net income forecasts for European banks are cut by €30 bn (-7%) over 2020-23E cumulatively....
...We recommend long LLOY, short RBS (SP, PT 110p) to clients specifically interested in hedging the negative interest rate risk....
...Lower PPI provisioning and assumed switch to buybacks vs. special DPS at RBS also leads to declining payouts at UK banks....
...Our top Staples picks: RB/ LN, NESN SW, BATS LN and BN FP....
...However, for RBS and HSBC, NII guidance already included a 25bp rate cut so the impact on consensus EPS would be smaller....
...: letter from Stephen Brown, Silsden, W Yorks, UK Last week, Theresa May said that now is the time for “cool, calm heads” over Brexit....
...Even if RBS strikes a sale agreement, the process of divesting W&G will take longer than the end of 2017 deadline....
...W&G has proved extremely difficult to sell or float on the stock market. Assume a forced sale for negligible value and that would be another hit....
...Many of the HBOS and RBS cases involved companies perceived to be high risk — or in financial difficulty....
...Ross McEwan, RBS chief executive, admitted at the time that hiving off W&G was one of the most challenging tasks under way at the bank....
...RBS, advised by Bank of America, says it is just responding to bid approaches. W&G, which EU state aid rules oblige RBS to sell, has a £20bn loan book and more than 2m customers....
...The irony is that RBS already tried to sell W&G to a trade buyer, in the form of Santander, but the deal fell apart on systems integration problems....
...He notes that RBS, Barclays and HSBC, meanwhile, are shrinking....
...… Shredded: Inside RBS, the Bank that Broke Britain, by Ian Fraser, Birlinn, RRP£25 RBS, briefly the biggest bank in the world, was a rogue bank....
...Like other banks, RBS has reported a sharp decline in branch usage in recent years and Mr Matheson expects to close some of its 1,900 branches and is selling 314 under the W&G brand to meet EU rules....
...RBS said: “The north west is a significant area for the W&G business, with thousands of employees based there. The region is also home to around one-fifth of the total W&G branch footprint.”...
...The move will surprise many because RBS, which is 81 per cent owned by the government, has many outstanding litigation issues....
...He warns that the “carveout” banks – TSB and W & G – could struggle as they have neither economies of scale nor rapid growth potential....
...Ms Forbes was appointed a member of George W Bush’s council of economic advisers aged only 33 in 2003 and served for two years, but insiders insist she is not ideological....
...All except the name RBS, that is. Sir Andrew Large’s separate report into lending by RBS contains useful context....
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