Hints and tips:
...Fed officials, including chair Jay Powell, acknowledge a greater supply of workers from 2022 onwards, both from immigration and more labour force participation, has helped contain wage growth....
...Powell implied that May was the earliest that the Fed would even consider a rate cut....
...This memo was written by Treasury secretary Janet Yellen (then a governor of the Federal Reserve Board) and entitled Job Insecurity, the Natural Rate of Unemployment, and the Phillips curve....
...Powell’s conversion to a less stringent view of the Phillips curve appears incomplete, however....
...Meanwhile, Biden has been dominating the Democratic primary contests across all states that have held votes so far, overcoming challenges from Dean Phillips and Marianne Williamson that never gained traction...
...On the equity side, small-cap stocks continue to be the story: while the S&P 500 has shrugged, the Russell 2000 is up 6 per cent since Jay Powell started talking....
...This is in line with the ECB’s forecasts and an important speech last week from Phillip Lane, chief economist....
...The 5 per cent figure for the US was higher than normal, but the Federal Reserve dismissed concerns, saying price rises reflected “transitory factors” with chair Jay Powell highlighting lumber and used car...
...These arguments are rooted in the concept of the Phillips curve, which maintains that unemployment and inflation have an inverse relationship....
...The key elements are in the chart below. 4: Taking the Phillips curve too literally I am going to pick on some members of the ECB’s governing council for the fourth category of crime....
...These Phillips curve arguments — that economies need a period of sub-par performance to force inflation lower — support the last mile thesis....
...An extremely low unemployment rate might in turn cause the Phillips curve to steepen....
...estate agency in Poole, says about 50 per cent of people moving to the area are relocating for access to good primary schools, notably Ofsted-outstanding Lilliput Church of England infant school and Baden-Powell...
...In the next 12 months, Powell will be writing the top paragraphs of his obituary, and he knows it. This suggests two risks....
...Dennis Kelleher and Phillip Basil, of Better Markets, did just that in a report last month, “Federal Reserve Policies and Systemic Instability.”...
...The Tories have struggled to shed the legacy of Enoch Powell’s “rivers of blood” speech. People of colour have until recently voted in numbers — often two-to-one — for centre-left parties....
...These are just the first-degree connections we found, mostly of his students but a few others that he has worked with (such as Yellen, Powell, King, Dornbusch and El-Erian)....
...Jay Powell, the Fed chair, acknowledged this week that a US recession is “certainly a possibility” as the central bank confronts the fastest inflation in roughly 40 years....
...I hope that Jay Powell picked up his phone and told the administration that this was going to be an issue....
...Is the Phillips curve alive or dead? On the one hand, alive....
...nonsense -- ActBlue and the power of money in US politics -- How urban flight lead to the Covid spread in America -- Reasons to be hopeful about edtech -- How the health/economic trade-off is like the Phillips...
...The signal we’ve taken from officials’ remarks is the FOMC thinks the Phillips curve is so flat that they can run the economy hot for as long as it takes to get to full employment....
...“I was into violence because I used to feel so hurt,” says Clive Phillips. The BLF’s Zainab Abbas avers, “I was never a fan of Martin Luther King’s ‘turn the other cheek’ . . ....
...A big reason why the Phillips Curve is so flat is that wage growth has been weak....
...There are plenty of “nearly men” and women who have prospered this way: some quietly, some stridently disproving the Enoch Powell aphorism that all political careers end in failure....
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