Hints and tips:
...In December it agreed a $13bn acquisition of US broker NFP, expanding the business it does with mid-sized companies....
...Following the services ISM and US Treasury’s quarterly funding statement, eyes should turn to Thursday’s jobless claims and Friday’s NFP release for evidence of whether or not the labour recovery is stalling...
...Could today’s NFP miss send the Dow to 20k at long last?...
...TD Securities this week took a profit on its short of December Eurodollar futures, which already had dribbled down as recent Fed chatter shortened rate hike odds. jamie.chisholm@ft.com...
...The NFP report on Friday showed the US economy added fewer jobs than expected in August, prompting investors to review the prospect of the Federal Reserve lifting interest rates this year....
...In the US, the National Security Council castigated China almost immediately....
...The past few months’ NFPs came in stronger than expected. But 10-year Treasury yields are 50 basis points lower than at the start of December. Treasury bears are thus frustrated....
...“Dollar buyers took advantage of the post-NFP dip to build on long [positions]”, said Elsa Lignos, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets....
...That should be music to the ECB’s ears, after it unexpectedly shaved 10bp from its main interest rates and announced proposals to begin asset-backed security and covered bond purchases....
...“The reaction to the NFP last week on Friday caused the market to push back the first whole 25 basis point rate hike from May 2015 to July 2015,” said Jim Lee, head of US derivative strategy at RBS....
...“The idea that a December taper would just ‘happen’ on today’s strong NFP report is misguided,” she argued....
...Friday’s NFP will consolidate views either way, but in a scenario that external sentiment deteriorates, this decision on the IOF may just anticipate flight risk....
...In February, NFPs posted a 236,000 gain....
...Not that employment data is helping much either, as questions over seasonal adjustment in jobs data are again being raised after Friday’s terrible NFPs....
...The yield on the 10-year securities fell 7bp to 1.34 per cent and two-year paper was down nearly 2bp to minus 0.003 per cent. Additional reporting by Jamie Chisholm in London...
...“As important, it will tend to detract from fears about a significant NFP downside surprise.” On the other side of the Atlantic, the chief focus of the day was the ECB’s policy meeting....
...Here, for instance, is Monument Securities’ Stephen Lewis: Global financial markets are looking to the release of December’s US non-farm payrolls data, due on 8 January, for a lead on where the world economy...
...Because, as analysts pointed out on Friday, the NFPs might not provide the turning point just yet....
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