Hints and tips:
...Productivity-hype bubbles are usually separated by at least 25 years and usually form at the end of a secular bull market, when aggregate profits are coming under pressure, say Garthwaite et al....
...Roman Kramarchuk, head of future energy analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said policy changes linked to COP28 were “inherently a long-term story”....
...In a 20-year period that has been lousy for banks generally, JPMorgan has kept up with the S&P 500 and, recently, beaten it....
...If you owned rate-sensitive, high-risk stocks yesterday you have Unhedged’s permission to sell and take the rest of the year off (Carvana, Zillow, SoFi, et al rose 10 per cent or more)....
...The riskiest, most beat-up members of the group (KeyCorp, Comerica, Zions, Western Alliance et al) rose the most....
...Katie MartinOne little thought to leave you with here is yes, we’ve got all-time highs in the S&P 500....
...The S&P 500 index has performed just fine since the eighth of March, rising about 4 per cent....
...Moreover, an analysis by rating agency S&P suggests UK banks have handed more of the benefits of interest rate rises to savers than their counterparts in Europe and the US....
...Arnott et al estimate that stocks ejected from the S&P 500 actually outperformed new entrants by an average of 2,200 basis points in the year after the index rejig (FTAV has written about the index inclusion...
...Everyone expects Jay Powell et al to say “no rate increase today, but maybe in a month”....
...In the communications sector, the video entertainment companies (Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount, Disney, Netflix et al) explain the bulk of the outperformance....
...Not a positive absolute return, by any means, but not that bad compared to the Agg’s 15 per cent loss, a 23 per cent drawdown for high-grade corporate debt and the S&P 500’s 22-per-cent puke....
...Does that mean already anxious investors have little to fear as the Fed et al embark on QT?...
...That is profitable for the broker but maybe those retail investors should just buy an S&P 500 ETF (or whatever) instead....
...“These effects have been documented with the S&P 500: a stock increases its price when it enters the index and the opposite happens if it is kicked out.”...
...A true crisis could develop if Binance et al have significant hidden exposure to declining prices, perhaps through DeFi investments....
...Facebook’s 12-month trailing price/earnings ratio, at 12.1, is lower than the S&P 500’s historical average of 15.5....
...Surely Zuck et al can make money — serious money — out of messaging software with two billion users. I disagree on the Metaverse, though. It is not “free”....
...Shares in the asset manager rose 5.7 per cent on the day the deal was announced, and this year they have nearly doubled the S&P 500’s performance....
...Here is the performance of the KBW bank index, compared with the S&P 500: Banks lend money and then hope to get paid back. The latter part of their business has been doing great....
...Trump et al v....
...The S&P 500 stands at a 30 per cent premium to the FTSE 100. From the US, the company reckons, it could sell itself to a broader base of stateside investors and analysts....
...So these calls tend to get a rather asymmetric amount of airtime versus, say, an equity strategist who thinks the S&P 500 may end the year up 5 per cent. We’re not the only ones to spot this trend....
...Andrew Garthwaite et al at Credit Suisse has had a fiddle about with the model portfolio, resulting in insurers getting a push....
...There’s not much precedent to support the idea that Shina et al can walk away based on a MAC clause: WPP was forced against its will to buy Tempus in 2001, Guy Hands couldn’t scrap a bid for East Surrey...
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