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...I don’t think he is, but unless you undertake full forecast evaluation in public and show you have learnt lessons, people will not accept your partial account that forecast errors were due to Russia’s invasion...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Forecasts vs scenarios A particular bugbear of mine occurs when officials paint some picture of the future and say: “This is a scenario not a forecast.”...
...Here to talk to me about why inflation remains so sticky is the FT’s Chris Giles. Hey, Chris. Chris Giles Hello....
...Also, don’t ask for consistency from the public. So, what does this mean for the Fed?...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com More important than US CPI inflation While financial markets dissected the price figures stateside, my focus was longer term....
...It wasn’t pretty....
...And don’t say “transitory inflation”, that took at least four months. Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Almost there . . ....
...We have learnt, and we didn’t see the wage price spiral that most people were concerned about. We also don’t see profiteering from companies....
...I don’t. There is therefore a lot of padding in BoE forecasts with the central bank crippled by unnecessary uncertainty. This is corroborated by speeches given by its officials....
...If true (I don’t buy it yet), it upends almost all thinking A chart that matters This chart matters because there is next to no action....
...chris.giles@ft.com...
...That means that March is now off the table, I don’t think....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Markets vs the Fed Everyone knows that financial markets are far ahead of the Federal Reserve in expecting interest rate cuts....
...Chris Giles: What’s causing the stickiness in inflation?...
...The good news is that the necessary consolidation of budgets is far from impossible so long as we don’t start falling for new fiscal fantasies....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Clueless OK, I accept that is an aggressive adjective about my fellow global citizens....
...I didn’t think they would fall so much,” she said....
...Mark St Giles Chairman, Cadogan FinancialSomerton, Somerset, UK...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com The last mile If there has been one metaphor that leading central bankers have used most often recently to describe inflation reduction, it is the running analogy that the...
...Chris Giles 1986 George Parker 1986....
...This isn’t a definitive list and I’ve already had one write-in entry....
...Email me at chris.giles@ft.com. Before you write that email, get your diaries out for the latest instalment of the FT’s (free to view) Global Boardroom virtual conference....
...Email me at chris.giles@ft.com....
...Please send your thoughts, comments and ideas to chris.giles@ft.com....
...Let me know if you disagree at chris.giles@ft.com....
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