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...If you look at Howard Marks’s investment philosophy for Oaktree, the first item for us is the primacy of risk control....
...It compares their forecasts every three months with the out-turn for annualised inflation in the first quarter....
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...Now, the market-implied year-end rate exceeds the Fed’s latest rate projections. Might the gap widen?...
...Late payments rise on US loans tied to inflated pandemic credit scores Consumers cut back on credit cards as repayment charges hit record high...
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...In the first two months of 2024 funds raised a combined $11.7bn, compared with $30.4bn in the same period last year....
...Turns out that last December’s inflation-control victory lap was a little premature....
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...But some of EM’s recent success was probably due to factors beyond their control. Relative to earlier episodes of Fed contagion, the change in global financial conditions was gentler....
...Higher Fed rates are supposed to boost income to lenders and reduce the income of borrowers....
...The most popular response for the timing of the first cut was split between July and September....
...Unhedged: Looking back over the period between when inflation first picked up in 2021 through the end of 2023, what calls did you get right and what did you get wrong?...
...But those taking out new loans and with hefty credit card balances will be even more strained. Delinquencies are edging up....
...Capital One’s $35.3bn proposed takeover of Discover Financial Services would fuse two leading credit card lenders and give it control of a network that connects consumers, merchants and banks....
...Everyone knows that bonds are back At a first pass, the risk-on feeling in corporate credit makes sense. Bond investors are chiefly concerned with two types of risk: credit and duration....
...In 2023, more than 112,000 Americans died of overdoses, a record high, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention....
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...it is clear the Fed is off track now....
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...However, credit spreads — or the premiums paid by corporate borrowers to issue debt over the US Treasury — are still hovering around multiyear lows, fuelled by intense demand for new bonds and scorching...
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