Hints and tips:
...Ethan here, with some professional news. After two-and-a-half years, this is my last edition of Unhedged....
...Ethan WuAnna, why did Shopify even attempt to compete in this logistics business with Amazon anyway? You’d think it would be like really, really hard to do that, right?...
...We’d love to have you....
...Be that as it may, we thought we’d talk about some of the fundamentals going on....
...Ethan WuThey really are. Robert ArmstrongYou know what I’m glad about, Ethan? I’m glad Katie Martin isn’t here because I don’t think she’d be able....
...As I mentioned the last show, we’re doing a listener questions episode in the near future, and we’d love to hear from you. ethan.wu@ ft.com. All right, Ortenca, thank you for being here....
...I’d worry more about Google. I’d worry more about Meta in terms of how the businesses can endure. Katie, I know you have something to say here....
...I’d say it’s impossible. Ethan WuYeah, it would need to create a new business line. And which is why you’re seeing in the IPO documents they mentioned AI like 50 or 60 times, right?...
...And in the long run, it’s not one of these kind of cyclical changes that you’d associate with early/mid/late cycle, is it?...
...[MUSIC PLAYING] Ethan WuWe’d be very happy to have you on anytime, anytime. All right, Katie, it’s so good to be back and it’s so good to have you. Thank you for hosting in my absence....
...There’d be much more consensus on what counts as an extraordinary claim. The Dow is going to go down 90 per cent? OK, that’s pretty extraordinary....
...Ethan WuWell, yeah, that’s true, but no, if it’s a $100bn company, you know, and everyone there’s a millionaire, you’d get laughed out of the room. Ortenca AliajThat’s right. And think about it....
...You’d either lose or make 8 points — no convexity. But if I showed you a bond that was win two, lose one, that’s a better bond!...
...And so a few that we thought we’d talk about are learning by doing and recombination of ideas. So Rob, explain those ideas....
...It’s really only the last point that gives us serious pause, but we are keen to hear what readers think: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Against such an economic backdrop, you’d expect similarly robust earnings growth. But judging by bottom-up analyst estimates, that’s not happening....
...(Ethan Wu) One good read One problem with US politics: losing elections is too pleasant....
...So if I had to sum up, I’d say antitrust in 2024: it’s gonna hit, but it won’t bite. Katie MartinAh, I see what you did there. Nice. Nice. Ethan WuThere you go. There you go....
...Ethan WuYeah. Yeah. That’s the most important inflation category by far. It’s the most important services category, importantly. And it’s been a bit of an enigma, I’d have to say Katie....
...Like, if I’d been like less of a scaredy cat and less cautious, and if I’d got out of cash, then there could have been like much more, much bigger returns for me there....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. The inflation narrative could flip fast Jay Powell is worried about inflation again....
...But you can still email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Email me: ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Elaine MooreRob, I knew I’d talk you around. You’re so easily swayed. Robert ArmstrongYeah. No. Yeah, very . . . Ethan WuRob is now pro-Cybertruck....
...If you have a better plan, email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Friday interview: Adam Posen Adam Posen is president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics....
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