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...“I think it’s important to remember that people living in each of those periods also didn’t know how it was going to end.”...
...Bets of just one cut rose after Powell’s remarks....
...“When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession.”...
...Powell said in San Francisco. “Our position is we don’t know. We’ll tell you what we’ll do if inflation does come down. That’s the base case, that’s what we expect.”...
...Still, the committee would avoid “dismissing data that we don’t like”, he said. Powell also downplayed the risks that the US’s persistently hot labour market would hinder the inflation fight....
...“And when we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it will be appropriate to dial back the level of restriction so that we don’t drive the economy into recession.”...
...But Powell’s stern sounds yesterday could easily turn serene tomorrow....
...“I don’t have a stance on that,” Powell said. “It’s not something I’m focused on . . ....
...To mark this moment while it doesn’t yet feel like a mistake, we’ve added a festive Jerome Powell-themed design to our Redbubble store: — Jerome Powell, Christmas Saviour (black text)— Jerome Powell, Christmas...
...“The labour market is very, very strong still,” Powell said. “So really the kind of pain that I was worried about and so many others were, we haven’t had that. And that’s a really good thing....
...Just don’t think that means new cuts are imminent....
...I don’t think that’s the base case,” Powell said in comments that prompted traders to slash their bets on a cut this spring and sent stocks sharply lower....
...“The kind of pain that I was worried about and so many others were, we haven’t had that,” he added....
...This shouldn’t be a shocking development, as Powell expressed concern about the potential downsides of the proposal when it was first released....
...Well, you can’t say the man doesn’t stay on message, though I can’t help but feel sorry for him, and not just because that’s a really sad statement about what fun is for a Fed chair....
...Powell alluded to those risks on Wednesday, saying it remained “premature” to declare victory over inflation and that further progress “can’t be guaranteed”....
...“What they would like to do is get to [that] stance as quickly as the inflation data will permit, because they know that policy lags haven’t fully played out and that they’re still going to hit the economy...
...UBS’s base case is still for two cuts this year, because of Powell’s comments....
...Powell and his colleagues seem to share the view that if inflation continues to moderate, they will have to lower the federal funds rate so it doesn’t become too restrictive and cause a recession....
...Jay Powell isn’t buying it. In his press conference yesterday, he waved off such worries: In theory, real rates go up as inflation comes down....
...We don’t know if this is a bump in the road or something more,” the Fed chair said, adding that he did not think recent readings had “really changed the overall story” of price pressures easing to 2 per...
...I don’t think so. Start with Summers’ argument. He mostly cited January CPI figures, which did come in hot....
...The Colombian artist Doris Salcedo has spent nearly four decades rendering the dead and disappeared visible in her art. But she does not believe in an afterlife....
...Still, given Powell’s midweek comments the Fed looks more likely to cut later, and potentially by less this year....
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