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...This chart from JP Morgan Asset Management isn’t exactly titled BTFD, but it does remind us that when the S&P 500 has just lost a cool quarter in value, the most successful thing to do has usually been to...
...People just don’t understand how the Fed’s operating model has changed. Quantities of money don’t really matter very much. What really matters is the interest rate that the Fed sets on reserves....
...S&P 500 dividend yields went as high as 9.2 per cent in the first quarter of 1938, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Even IPOs paid them, as I read to my surprise in Peris’s book....
...That’s an uncomfortable question to ask, in a world where we regularly hear of unscrupulous employers bullying, failing to pay overtime, or throwing qualified staff overboard, as P&O Ferries did so disgracefully...
...When doing “draw and inspect”, new drawdowners will see the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high on March 28....
...The S&P 500 isn’t at such extremes today....
...In The Clash of Civilizations book, which is referred to in the essay albeit not by name, Samuel P Huntington wrote that “if civilisation is what counts . . . violence between Ukrainians and Russians...
...The 20-year average growth rate for earnings is about 10 per cent (according to S&P Indices)....
...They say if you do this then you’re in; if you don’t do it then you’re out....
...There are folks out there who make a good living building and selling covenant databases, and we don’t envy them....
...I just don’t know when . . . We’re still seeing lots of companies that we like....
...An increase in liquidity tends to push the marginal investor further out on the risk spectrum, since investors as a whole don’t have an infinite appetite for holding cash....
...In our view, this probably explains their strong re-rating (forward P/E of 27.2x), and why they are trading at a 110% premium to the STOXX 600 (13.0x)” wrote....
...But valuation shifts don’t go on forever....
...Equally, we don’t have the conditions that support a sustained equity bull run....
...Seems to me, therefore, that unless I can beat the S&P 500 — in sterling to match my liabilities — I shouldn’t bother. The author is a former portfolio manager....
...And — as a chart borrowed from Duncan Lamont at Schroders shows — the extent of concentration in the S&P 500 is not something investors are used to....
...I don’t think this is quite right....
...“Their first rule is ‘don’t create a recession’ and the best way of starting a recession is tipping equities into a bear market,” he added....
...This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Why so down, S&P 500?’ [MUSIC PLAYING] Ethan WuRemember last week’s massive 4.9 per cent US GDP number? Well, stocks don’t like it....
...Leighton P Roper Jr Arlington, VA, US...
...And if you’re sitting next to Uncle Bob the value manager at Christmas dinner, don’t ask him about the fund....
...Since late October, the S&P 500 is up just over a fifth. Its much easier to lure companies into the public glare when valuations are improving....
...The only stupid thing would be not to ask one if there’s something you don’t understand....
...Given the chance to disaggregate the Mag 7, I’d argue that Google and Meta don’t look terribly expensive relative to historical and expected growth; while Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla do look very pricey....
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