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...Brands in the mid-to-low price range have been most affected, according to Calista Muskitta, an analyst at Indonesian bank BCA Sekuritas....
...The latter could limit homebuilders’ pain amid a recession next year,” said the BCA analysts in a recent note to clients....
...Other better than expected data has lifted Sweden’s economic surprise index back above zero, which “represents a beacon of optimism”, according to BCA....
...BCA expects Brent crude to average $98 a barrel this year, with average prices exceeding $100 a barrel in the second half of 2024. This stability could rapidly change....
...Bob Ryan, a commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research, said “it wouldn’t be a surprise” if prices hit $100 a barrel this year as the Opec+ cartel of major oil producers looks set to maintain the voluntary...
...But Robert Ryan, BCA Research’s veteran energy strategist, takes the other side: “History says it’s been a bad bet to go against Saudi....
...They’re being extraordinarily careful with every step they take,” said Matt Gertken, a geopolitical strategist at BCA Research....
...Although it’s still early days, that reinforces BCA’s view that the global economy will suffer a recession in 2024....
...Bob Ryan, commodity and energy strategist at BCA Research, said traders were underpricing other risks such as potential cyber warfare by Russia, China and Iran, seeking to engineer higher oil prices in order...
...The group helped bring a number of high-profile companies to the market including Entertainment One, the media company behind Peppa Pig, Advanced Computer Software and BCA Group, the used vehicle marketplace...
...Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research argues that Chinese residential property is massively overvalued....
...All these factors are why BCA’s chief global strategist Peter Berezin reckons that 2024 will be “the year of the yen”, arguing that “the stars are aligning in a way that could see the yen make significant...
...China has contributed 40 per cent to global growth rates over the past 10 years, according to Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research....
...These arguments are accompanied by charts like this, showing the rising share of public companies that can’t cover interest payments out of cash flow (from BCA Research): Or perhaps like this: The Russell...
...In this higher cost of capital environment, NAV lending is “a sign of froth”, says Brian Payne, a former pension portfolio manager who is BCA Research’s newly minted private markets strategist....
...BCA Research’s Dhaval Joshi adds that the deflation China could in principle export is not the sort that would reassure the Fed....
...Taking the other side, Ryan Swift, US bond strategist at BCA Research, told us these are firmly secondary to what’s happening to growth....
...The long-term chart below, courtesy of BCA Research’s Irene Tunkel, stirs together various methodologies for calculating the ERP....
...As Doug Peta of BCA Research pointed out in a note this weekend, “The delay in the earnings decline will exert considerable pressure on underexposed professional asset managers, whose compensation and continued...
...BCA Research’s Irene Tunkel notes that Prof Shiller’s measure did accurately call the 2000 and 2008 bear markets. Any further thoughts are welcome at the email below....
...The rise in the S&P 500, says Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, has been driven by “euphoria in a handful of megacap AI plays”....
...Brian Payne, an analyst of private equity deals at BCA Research, says the valuations of deals struck in recent years could drive poor returns or losses....
...On the first question, Dhaval Joshi of BCA Research argues that the current housing recession will pull fixed investment in residential real estate down from about 4 per cent to 2 per cent of GDP, with something...
...BCA Research is part of an unwieldy conglomerate of interests inside Euromoney....
...Irene Tunkel at BCA Research figures that telecoms will get more compelling the closer we get to a recession. Step back, though, and these few pockets of value look tenuous....
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