Hints and tips:
...Citi expects Nvidia and Eli Lilly alone will make up a quarter of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2024. How’s everyone feeling about this rally? Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...These are hard calls and we’re in no position to forecast the EV supply-demand balance....
...If your child has a Frozen II Nerf gun they used once and never again, email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...It’s a substantive comment, and we’ve included it below. If other CEOs out there (other than John Ridding) have complaints, send them to: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Email us your chocolate alternatives: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...If you have strong opinions about anything else, send them along: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Is the rally over?...
...It isn’t yet obvious this is a bank failure waiting to happen. Disagree? Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Maybe there’s more Treasury supply coming in the long end, so it is not only driven by what the Fed is doing, it is also driven by supply....
...Unhedged is, as a result, full of the holiday spirit. Let us know how you’re feeling: robert.armstrong@ft.com....
...Back in May, when the staples sell-off began, yields for S&P 500 staples were about 2.5 per cent on average, only a bit better than the wider market....
...Rates can go a bit higher from where they are today. Again, you’ve got to absorb a lot of supply....
...(Armstrong & Wu) One good read A defence of active fund management....
...It does look more and more likely that the post-Covid inflationary burst was first caused by a supply shock rather than excess demand....
...on a sector that has benefited from dearth of supply....
...Pepsi reports Thursday, and a pack of big banks follow on Friday. Expectations are that S&P 500 second-quarter earnings fell 7 per cent from a year ago....
...Energy stocks, in particular the US majors, had a good day yesterday, despite all but unchanged oil prices. Perhaps this reflects a bet that Russian instability will constrain global energy supply....
...Grabinski calculates that on a trailing 12-month basis, S&P cost growth has outstripped revenue growth for the fourth month in a row....
...S&P 500 profits, which have shrunk 6 per cent since the peak a year ago, are 34 per cent higher than December 2019....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Homebuilders, or, why we feel very dumb now Back in January, we wrote about our picks for the 2023 FT stock picking contest....
...access to some kind of water supply....
...A bad omen for the rest of earnings season? Probably not: investment banking and trading say more about markets than the real economy. Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...The oil price aside, the global energy market is still tight, with serious risks to supply....
...It has increased revenue at a five-year compound annual rate of 17 per cent, and has a five-year average return on capital of 16 per cent, according to S&P Capital IQ....
...It’s great fun to have him join us today for a discussion of the puzzle of Japan’s economy and markets. We’re keen to hear your thoughts, too: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...There’s this monthly survey number put out by the Institute for Supply Management of US Manufacturers, and it’s been contracting for several months now. It’s not quite yet in deep recession territory....
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