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...In options markets, many participants put a probability close to 20 per cent on the next move from the Fed being a rate rise....
...Do these stories still make sense or have we moved into a persistently higher interest rate world? A world of disagreement I am going to simplify here, but we have a big divergence....
...With good economic policies and better luck, 2024 could be a good election to win. chris.giles@ft.com...
...Lawrence Summers was on multiple outlets saying a US rate cut in June would be a dangerous and egregious error....
...A troubling reason for caution Back in December, I examined a lot of research on public attitudes to inflation....
...Chris Giles Thank you. [MUSIC PLAYING] Sonja Hutson The ecommerce giant PDD Holdings had a bonkers end to 2023....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com A global primer on the future of QT Central bankers love acronyms. And when it comes to talking about buying and selling assets, they are really smitten....
...chris.giles@ft.com...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Forecasts vs scenarios A particular bugbear of mine occurs when officials paint some picture of the future and say: “This is a scenario not a forecast.”...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Sticky services No one should care too much about movements in individual components of inflation, but many economists exempt the broad category of services from this rule...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com More important than US CPI inflation While financial markets dissected the price figures stateside, my focus was longer term....
...Central Banks with Chris Giles is the FT’s newest newsletter....
...A dovish hike The BoJ ended negative interest rates in March and raised them to a range between 0 and 0.1 per cent....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Effective QT makes the case for QE I am writing this newsletter mid-Atlantic on my way back from Friday’s rather excellent US monetary policy forum, organised by the University...
...Being a pre-election Budget, Jeremy Hunt’s speech will probably be more focused on politics than sensible economics or public finance management....
...That’s a public cost of £100,000 per job. Why is it so expensive? Because nearly all the gains go to those already in work....
...Giles DixonChelwood Gate, East Sussex, UK...
...A notable exception is Giles Deacon, who launched his self-funded ready-to-wear label GILES at London Fashion Week in February 2004 and has neither vanished nor been absorbed into a luxury behemoth....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Almost there . . ....
...Apart from taking credit for a responsibility devolved to the central bank, the entire cause of this projected fall in inflation is lower wholesale gas and electricity prices....
...Giles Keating London W8, UK...
...chris.giles@ft.com Letter in response to this column:Where Laffer lives / From Paul Barnes, Chief Executive, Association of International Retail, London SW8, UK...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Crippling uncertainties Last week, I dissected the Federal Reserve’s uncertainties in its forecasts, concluding that if these are genuinely held, the world’s most powerful...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Worrying about wages There is little today’s central bankers like to do more than worry about excessive wage rises. This is not a criticism....
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