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...Ahead of the central bank’s March 20 decision on monetary policy, traders are attaching a 48.6 per cent chance to a quarter-point cut in June, according to Bloomberg data....
...As such, short-term monetary policy responses may prove inconsequential. So far in 2024, companies have wisely raced to refinance debt during this favourable window....
...Yet the fund can’t help itself: it worries about high-debt countries running out of “fiscal space” and so having to reprioritise other spending....
...And yet . . . services inflation is kind of high, the labour market remains strong, and financial markets seem to reflect no worry whatsoever. Is this how The Economy is supposed to work?...
...This is an audio transcript of the Unhedged podcast episode: ‘Should we worry about private credit?’...
...“We have seen an incredible expansion of fiscal policy, which, unlike monetary policy, continues to be extraordinarily loose and expansionary.”...
...Underlining these worries, the ECB said it expected core inflation — which excludes volatile energy and food prices — to be 2.6 per cent this year, slightly lower than its previous forecast of 2.7 per cent...
...This is likely to worry ECB officials about the risk of persistent inflation that is already making them wary of cutting interest rates too early....
...“Monetary policy is working. Inflation is falling.” Officials at the Bank of England are not sounding quite that assured — or at least not yet....
...This is likely to worry ECB rate-setters who have said they want to see wages moderating before lowering borrowing costs....
...At the same time, the US had an enormous spike in unemployment, which meant people suddenly switching jobs didn’t need to worry about employers wondering “what’s wrong with you?”....
...Yet some still worry high wage growth and supply chain disruption caused by attacks on ships in the Red Sea may keep inflation high....
...retail sales are higher than reported, and continuing jobless claims are in truth lower than reported, it becomes marginally easier to argue that the US economy is doing well, and that Americans needn’t worry...
...Office blocks and shopping malls lie at the centre of the IMF’s worries over the health of lenders’ real estate portfolios, a senior fund official has said....
...Should we worry? Let’s first go on a short tour of the MMF landscape — and especially the seven biggest funds....
...Economic fluctuations, monetary policy, inflation Interview. John Williams: ‘I don’t have a recession in my forecast....
...The name of the game of monetary policymakers is now to postpone any celebration of victory....
...Samorajski said easing monetary policy could benefit private credit as borrowers are less likely to miss debt interest payments....
...In its new mood for effective communication, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee was even more explicit in the minutes of its March meeting: “The committee recognised that the stance of monetary...
...“What I worry about is that without a sufficient amount of information about whether we’re really on that disinflationary process that brings us back to 2 [per cent], we have to ‘stop-start’,” she said,...
...The easing of the region’s worst cost of living crisis for a generation will be welcomed by the ECB, which meets next week to discuss how soon to loosen monetary policy....
...The continued strength of Europe’s labour market will add to caution among European Central Bank policymakers about the timing of a potential cut in interest rates as they worry that rapid wage growth could...
...Central bankers often worry that the public believes their forecasts are unconditional and akin to predicting “the sun will rise in the east tomorrow”....
...There has been much worry about a potential doom loop with burgeoning deficits forcing governments to borrow more, in turn spurring them to raise rates to draw buyers....
...Business surveys from the US and Europe signalled resilience in those economies amid restrictive monetary policies....
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