Hints and tips:
...Big investors are selling US Treasuries and buying European government bonds, betting that cooler inflation in Europe will allow its central bank to start cutting interest rates sooner than the Federal Reserve...
...Neither the monster national players (JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citigroup) nor the regionals (PNC, M&T, et al) have had much to say about the economy’s effect on credit quality....
...If you owned rate-sensitive, high-risk stocks yesterday you have Unhedged’s permission to sell and take the rest of the year off (Carvana, Zillow, SoFi, et al rose 10 per cent or more)....
...The former is a near-term likelihood in China, however, and not implausible in the US as the Federal Reserve winds down quantitative tightening....
...The riskiest, most beat-up members of the group (KeyCorp, Comerica, Zions, Western Alliance et al) rose the most....
...Luzzetti’s chart: In contrast, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s much watched GDPNow monitor is far rosier....
...Monetary policy: Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell and Bank of Spain’s governor Pablo Hernández de Cos are scheduled to appear at a conference while Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president Raphael Bostic...
...That the Fed’s rate increases precipitated a banking crisis before they got inflation down to even vaguely near their target looks like a good example of what Akinci et al were arguing last year....
...More recently, the Bank of England, the Bank for International Settlement, and the Federal Reserve itself have all highlighted how Treasury bonds/futures arbitrage strategies have been staging a comeback...
...Given how volatile the data was during Covid-19, Williams et al suspended their estimates until May....
...And Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell makes much the same argument. They didn’t see that Covid had itself reduced the likelihood of a large return of labour....
...Today’s top stories The US Federal Reserve announces its decision on interest rates at 2pm ET/7pm London today. Check back here for details and reaction....
...Shares in other banks considered to have some degree of asset-liability mismatch (Western Alliance, Zions et al) only saw their shares wobble a little bit yesterday....
...Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell has warned that the US central bank might have to raise interest rates more than investors expect because it will probably take a “significant period of time” to tame inflation...
...So, you know, one of the big kind of expectations running into this year, and it already feels silly looking back on it, is that we were gonna get six rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in 2024 — without...
...Their balance sheets are regularly scrutinised by the Federal Reserve, among others, and their risk profiles are closely monitored....
...If we are right that consumer spending, despite some recent softening on the margin, is still at or above trend, that is another thing for Powell et al to fret over....
...That global macroeconomic movements this year have been in large part due to the United States Federal Reserve is so obvious that this paragraph is pointless....
...In each episode, disruptions in dollar funding markets led to an extraordinary policy response in the form of central bank swap lines, whereby the Federal Reserve channelled US dollars to key central banks...
...And for all the flaws of the current approach to equity and inclusion, Edmans et al say it does seem to be bearing some fruit: the average DEI score from their calculations has risen from 4.1 out of 5 in...
...Today’s top stories The US Federal Reserve announces its decision on interest rates at 2pm ET/7pm London time today. Check back here for details and reaction....
...The addition of the “+” countries (Russia, Kazakhstan, Mexico et al) to the cartel have increased its market share....
...A Federal Reserve Board of Governors paper by Edmund Crawley et al says $2.5tn of Fed balance sheet unwind would approximately equate to a 0.50 percentage point of tightening, or 20 basis points per trillion...
...So-called quantitative tightening has only ever been tried once before, when the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, the ECB and the Bank of Japan in 2018-19 collectively shrank their balance sheets by...
...Luckily, efforts to ram crypto’s square peg into the round hole of the Securities Act of 1933 (et al) have proceeded slowly to date. But there is danger this mistaken project will accelerate now....
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