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Unhedged
Are higher rates inflationary? Premium content
...Looking at a 20-year chart of the price/earnings valuations of the S&P 500 and its small cap sibling the S&P 600, it seems possible that this is what has happened to small stocks: Small caps (dark blue...
April 18, 2024
UnhedgedRobert Armstrong
Higher earnings, please Premium content
...If you take the Magnificent 7 out of the S&P 500, its multiple moves from 22 to 19. The S&P 350 is at 14....
April 8, 2024
FT Live
FTWeekend Festival: U.S. edition
Where the Financial Times weekend paper comes to life
Saturday, 4 MayThe REACH, at the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, F Street Northwest, Washington, DC, USA
Equities
Structured products and the ‘broken Vix’ discourse
...Thus only a fraction of overall AUM is deployed in strategies that have a direct impact on the VIX® index (e.g. 1-month over/underwriting strategies on the S&P 500 index)....
March 13, 2024
UnhedgedRobert Armstrong
The valuation of the Mag 7, revisited Premium content
...The forward P/E of the Mag 7 is 31. The rest of the S&P 500, excluding the Mag 7 and four stocks with negative expected earnings, has a forward P/E of 19....
February 12, 2024
Unhedged
If the Magnificent 7 are expensive, so is the market Premium content
...The S&P 489 has a weighted average P/E of 24, cheaper than the whole index, but not by much....
February 7, 2024
Unhedged
A better bull market? Premium content
...On a forward P/E basis, the S&P 500’s 2021 (harmonic) average was 23, versus an average of 22 in the past four months and 18 in the past three decades....
March 7, 2024
FT Live
Commodities Asia Summit
Enabling decarbonisation in a time of disrupted trade flows
Wednesday, 6 NovemberSingapore
Bitcoin
Crypto miners hoard bitcoin as supply cut looms
...About 24 per cent of Marathon’s shares are out on loan — a strong indicator of short interest, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence....
April 18, 2024
Equity valuation
The interlocking dimensions of stock market concentration
...Japanese stocks traded on a P/E of 67x in 1990. The Nifty 50 traded on a P/E of 34x in 1973....
March 11, 2024
European companies
The increasingly silly search for Europe’s (less) Magnificent Seven
...In our view, this probably explains their strong re-rating (forward P/E of 27.2x), and why they are trading at a 110% premium to the STOXX 600 (13.0x)” wrote....
March 6, 2024
Market bubbles
Big tech will either be fine or probably mostly fine, says Goldman
...30x P/E multiple is sustainable given rest of the index trades at 18x,” write Goldman’s David Kostin and team....
February 6, 2024
LexNatural gas
The worst of the gas glut is over for US drillers Premium content
...By September last year, all three had covered more than half of their respective 2024 production at prices above $3/mn Btu, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence....
April 8, 2024
LexTech start-ups
Venture capital dry powder has nowhere to go Premium content
...High multiples on which they trade have pushed the broader S&P 500 Shiller price-to-earnings ratio, aka the cyclically adjusted p/e ratio (CAPE), up from less than 30 times in late 2022 to 34 times....
April 12, 2024
Unhedged
What’s wrong with Apple? Premium content
...For a stock that is expected to increase earnings below the S&P 500’s average pace this year and next, that’s still a lot....
April 2, 2024
Unhedged
How fast can Big Tech grow? Premium content
...I would not want to bet that the Mag 7 would revert to a growth rate of profits near the S&P 500 average (mid-high single digits) in the next five years....
November 29, 2023
Unhedged
Where are the cheap stocks? Premium content
...Stocks with low P/E ratios relative to their expected growth rates are rare....
January 10, 2024
FT Live
Future of Asset Management Europe
New fund firm models for Europe's resurgence
Tuesday, 12 NovemberLondon, UK
Investing in funds
Index providers are massively dull — and massively profitable
...At the top of the pile is the S&P 500, which is an absolute beast....
March 19, 2024
US presidential election 2024
Looking ahead to 2024’s biggest horror show
...In the median experience since 1984, the S&P 500 forward P/E has declined by 2% in the 12 months preceding Election Day....
November 8, 2023
Live news updates from August 4: Moscow hands Navalny 19-year prison, US jobs growth lower than expected
S&P drops ESG ratings from credit scores
...In 2021, S&P started publishing numbered scores from 1 to 5 for the three E, S and G categories as part of corporate credit scores....
August 4, 2023
Work & Careers
The scramble to find CFOs as departures hit decade high
...The churn was particularly high in US consumer and financial services groups, where one in five members of the S&P 500 or Fortune 500 changed CFOs, according to headhunter CristKolder Associates’ most recent...
January 11, 2024
Energy Source
Santos pipeline faces uphill battle despite legal victory Premium content
...K-SURE, the South Korean government export credit agency, has withdrawn insurance needed to underwrite SK E&S’s investment in the Timor Sea project....
February 20, 2024
Hedge funds
Share price surge helps largest hedge funds to biggest profits on record
...TCI made $12.9bn for investors and ended last year up 33 per cent, ahead of the S&P 500 index’s 24 per cent rise....
January 22, 2024
UnhedgedRobert Armstrong
Peak-rates euphoria Premium content
...Another knock on this market is that it is not as strong as it appears, in that almost all the gains of the S&P 500 come from the magnificent seven tech stocks....
November 27, 2023
Apple Inc
‘Sell Apple’
...The P/E relative of the stock on UBS 2026E EPS (against the market) goes to a record high of 152% on the UBS forecast of earnings. 2....
February 27, 2024
Prudential PLC
Prudential chief says China momentum returning after joint venture sales dive
...director at S&P Global Ratings....
March 20, 2024
FT Alphaville
FTAV’s further reading
...Regulators Are Taking Notice (Bloomberg $) — Is the S&P 500 Broken?...
December 4, 2023

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