Hints and tips:
...The figures “highlight the risk of a stagflation-like episode for the UK economy”, said Paul Hollingsworth, economist at the consultancy BNP Paribas Markets 360....
...Samuel Tombs: The MPC probably has done enough already to bring CPI inflation back to the 2 per cent target within the next two years....
...Samuel Tombs: The UK will not close the productivity gap with other advanced economies next year....
...“Optimism on Brexit could soon wane,” warned Paul Hollingsworth, at BNP Paribas....
...Samuel Tombs: 2022 will be the year of peak fiscal pain....
...Paul Hollingsworth: Fiscal policy is likely to play a more active part in supporting growth over coming years....
...Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said the inflation data were much lower than the MPC expected, “greatly undermining the case for a May rate hike.”...
...“January’s weak survey may not necessarily be a sign of things to come,” said Paul Hollingsworth of Capital Economics....
...“Inflation is falling back to the 2 per cent target much more rapidly than the MPC expected,” said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics....
...Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics said it looks like the “economy is struggling to re-accelerate in the third quarter after a disappointing first half of the year”, but believed there are enough positive...
...Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist, BNP Paribas I don’t envy the Monetary Policy Committee at present....
...Samuel Tombs at Pantheon notes the May figures are the first sign that retailers are beginning to pass on higher producer costs to customers....
...Samuel Tombs at Pantheon also notes the personnel changes at the BoE means the “new hawks won’t get their way”....
...Samuel Tombs at Pantheon Economics also ruminates over possible UK coalitions, and how they might affect the pound, which has dropped hard in the wake of the exit polls....
...However, Capital Economics economist Paul Hollingsworth remained relatively upbeat....
...Samuel Tombs, an economist at Pantheon, said the fall in employment would “raise eyebrows” but was “not as alarming as it might seem.”...
...Others are more downbeat on the outlook for the labour market, with Samuel Tombs at Pantheon arguing that robust jobs numbers “won’t last” after the UK’s decision to exit the EU....
...The manufacturing slump is also evidence that a weaker pound is not helping to offset the fall in demand ahead of the referendum, says Samuel Tombs at Pantheon....
...Samuel Tombs at Pantheon described the inflation jump as a “a wake up call to markets” as the 1 per cent rise from August’s 0.6 per cent suggests the UK is “heading for a prolonged period of high inflation...
...Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics said: “This would be more than ‘a bit’ of an overshoot of the inflation target that governor Carney has said he is happy to tolerate.”...
...The sharp deterioration reported by manufacturers in July could prove to be an “overreaction” said Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics, who says the “sector is shrugging off post-referendum worries well...
...Today’s “no change” decision was widely expected, notes Paul Hollingsworth at Capital Economics, who thinks a November rate cut is still on the cards: The minutes still signaled that another rate cut is...
...Paul Hollingsworth, UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics, said the data were “dismal” and provided “further signs that the economic recovery has remained worryingly unbalanced”....
...Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon, said the likelihood of the chancellor reducing borrowing at the rate envisaged in November’s Autumn Statement “now looks extremely slim”....
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