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...Berkshire and the S&P 500 If your entire equity portfolio had to be in either the S&P 500 or Berkshire Hathaway, which would be the better choice?...
...But if you’d bought the dip each time a 25 per cent decline happened in the Brazilian, Italian, Hong Kong, Argentinian or Russian markets, you’d likely be cursing yourself....
...Against such an economic backdrop, you’d expect similarly robust earnings growth. But judging by bottom-up analyst estimates, that’s not happening....
...The S&P 500 isn’t at such extremes today....
...Political will for public R&D investment has materialised....
...Over the past 10 years the size of its buyback scheme dwarfs both its R&D spend and the buyback schemes from peers, adding up to a total of $658bn, according to data from S&P Global....
...These have picked up markedly in recent years, from a low of about 400,000 b/d in the pandemic year of 2020 to about 1.4mn b/d recently, according to Richard Bronze at Energy Aspects....
...S&P 500 dividend yields went as high as 9.2 per cent in the first quarter of 1938, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. Even IPOs paid them, as I read to my surprise in Peris’s book....
...“The risk was that the market would keep rallying and that they’d underperform.”...
...TL;DR: The size of funds that directly affect the Vix calculation is too modest, and if they were to blame you’d see a very different pattern in options prices. So what is to blame?...
...And yes, they’d be right. A PIK note tends to give the issuer options....
...And — as a chart borrowed from Duncan Lamont at Schroders shows — the extent of concentration in the S&P 500 is not something investors are used to....
...“It is a coming of age,” said Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P, of the dividend announcement....
...I’d be no better than equal weight.” So far this year, the S&P banks index is down about 12 per cent, while the benchmark S&P 500 has risen more than 13 per cent....
...Given the chance to disaggregate the Mag 7, I’d argue that Google and Meta don’t look terribly expensive relative to historical and expected growth; while Nvidia, Microsoft and Tesla do look very pricey....
...Take a classic approach to market analysis and you’d have a good argument for calling this a bull market....
...The Mag 7 re-invests 60% of their cash flow from operations through growth capex and R&D. This reinvestment rate is more than double the 26% of the Tech Bubble 5 and about 3x that of the S&P 493....
...That compares with 6.8 per cent at Volkswagen, on S&P Capital IQ estimates. Being big also means that necessary investments, in new models and R&D, are less of a drag....
...The KBW Nasdaq Fintech index is up 31 per cent over the past year, compared with a return of 25 per cent for the broader S&P 500....
...TCI made $12.9bn for investors and ended last year up 33 per cent, ahead of the S&P 500 index’s 24 per cent rise....
...“We figured at some point over the next few years, we’d start to see a downturn [in gas use]....
...That sums up nicely how these products sit within a spectrum of returns — you’d have made much more from straight equity investing but with a structured product you’d have received a less volatile, steady...
...Many readers will know Munger’s famous line that you’d be wise to swap the term “ebitda” with “bullshit”....
...grade rating from S&P....
...Back in May, when the staples sell-off began, yields for S&P 500 staples were about 2.5 per cent on average, only a bit better than the wider market....
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