Hints and tips:
...My view for two years was that we were going to have a recession at some point, because the Fed had let the unemployment rate get well below Nairu....
...There’s a view that the medium-term equilibrium rate of unemployment, the Nairu, may have risen somewhat....
...The first is the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. A mouthful, NAIRU simply refers to the idea that, in any stable monetary system, some people naturally won’t have jobs....
...In a world with a higher Nairu, employment and participation rates have to be lower if inflation is to be avoided (a rather anti-intuitive impact of a labour supply shock, but there it is)....
...What is Powell’s new Nairu? The Fed’s historical model for the “non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment” cannot be a reliable guide for future policy rate changes....
...In an open economy there is not a single definite Nairu....
...The traditional models — notably, “Nairu”, the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment — tell economists that a jobless rate of 3.5 per cent, which is the current US level, is well below the point...
...Short term this means sufficient stimulus to limit the rise in unemployment to the rise in the NAIRU....
...More surprisingly, wage inflation also seems to have risen recently in the Eurozone, even though unemployment there has not yet fallen below consensus estimates of the “natural rate” or NAIRU....
...The standard NAIRU framework says inflation had accelerated because unemployment had dropped below its “natural” rate....
...The official abbreviation for that economic idea is NAIRU, which stands for “non-accelerating rate of unemployment”....
...NAIRU time? The eurozone’s unemployment rate hit a fresh decade low of 8.1 per cent in August....
...Erudite macroeconomic studies on the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (Nairu) and the equilibrium real rate of interest (R*) look good on paper, but they could prove wildly wrong after Brexit...
...Related links: NAIRU: not just bad economics, now also bad politics — FT Alphaville Optimal-Control Monetary Policy in the FRB/US Model — Brayton, Laubach, and Reifschneider Should the Yellen Fed rely on...
...unpredictable skills that cannot be automated Reasons why Donald Trump decided to take the Davos stage The forum offers the president an extra chance to parade his self-proclaimed genius FT Alphaville: NAIRU...
...“Although puzzled by this year’s decline in inflation when unemployment has dropped below its own estimate of the Nairu [non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment], the Federal Open Market Committee...
...The sooner NAIRU is buried and forgotten, the better....
...The Fed has the UR well below the NAIRU so the employment and inflation above its target, so it there is nothing to stop them from tightening a bit faster, except if implicitly they see above 2% inflation...
...Related links: Central bankers have one job and they don’t know how to do it — FT Alphaville Debunking the NAIRU myth — FT Alphaville Being Mario Draghi — The Economist...
...And as Staiger, Stock and Watson demonstrated years ago the Nairu, assuming such a thing exists, can only be estimated with extreme imprecision....
...— FT Alphaville Debunking the NAIRU myth — FT Alphaville Monetary policy: it’s mostly fiscal — FT Alphaville The Fed may be about to atone for the “mistake” of 1998 — FT Alphaville The Fed wonders where...
...Is Nairu bunk? [23:01] Matt Klein writes that Nairu — the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment — is a useless concept....
...– Eric Lonergan: The case for a new economics (and against NAIRU). – Jolly old Warren Buffett dispenses folksy nuggets of wisdom like ‘If a lady says no, she means maybe’....
...Including bonus swipes at Greenspan and a suggestion to “replace the NAIRU – the Non-Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment – with the NAIBER – the Non-Accelerating Inflation Buffer Employment Ratio...
...– A response to Matt on NAIRU from George Pearkes: You’re over-thinking it. – The new politics of class. – Trump returns America to real working Americans by canceling mortgage relief program....
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