Hints and tips:
...To Marko Kolanovic, chief global markets strategist at JPMorgan, all this rampant asset price inflation is beginning to look quite inflation-y: In the last 3 years, narratives for the macro regime went...
...Mathews joined Sunnova last year as executive vice-president of service and supply chain....
...Per JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic and team: Call overwriting ETFs have become a large source of volatility supply that has been increasingly weighing on market volatility levels, in our view....
...“If we’re right that growth will falter later this year . . . we suspect some pain is on the way for the S&P 500, and global equities generally,” said Mathews....
...His year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,200 points — about 5 per cent below its current AI-stirred level — because of aggro from the Federal Reserve and Vladimir Putin....
...To put this notion to the test, I ran screens (using S&P Capital IQ) of the S&P 500 big-cap and the S&P 600 small-cap indices....
...JPMorgan notes that State Street’s S&P 500-tracking SPY, Invesco’s Nasdaq-linked QQQ and BlackRock’s small-caps IWM ETF account for about 94 per cent of all US ETF option trading volumes in 2023....
...This uses the SPY ETF, but the results are the same for the actual S&P 500....
...Thomas Mathews, senior markets economist at Capital Economics, said “growing enthusiasm about AI will [not] be enough to stop the S&P 500 from declining if [ . . . ] the US economy falls into recession later...
...The market’s rise “seems misplaced given that investors were never pricing in a material risk of failure to raise the debt ceiling to begin with”, said Marko Kolanovic, a JPMorgan strategist....
...Marko Mrsnik, lead sovereign analyst at S&P Global Ratings, added that, according to an S&P stress test, a single percentage point increase in borrowing costs would increase debt to gross domestic product...
...As JPMorgan strategist Marko Kolanovic writes: “Equity valuations (multiples) are not pricing a soft landing, but rather a continued expansion and simultaneous monetary easing . . ....
...Nowadays, more than two-fifths of typical S&P 500 options volume is on 0DTEs, about $1tn worth a day....
...One of the louder warnings comes from JPMorgan strategist and vol whisperer Marko Kolanovic. This one carries the alarming subhed of “interest rates — history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes with 2008”....
...Chedid noted that a notional “S&P 492” — the flagship index robbed of its eight largest constituents — is actually down a fraction this year....
...Analysts Samuel Tilleray and Marko Mrsnik write that, since 2016: [Governments] have borrowed extensively to soften the fallout on households and companies from a series of shocks, including the COVID-19...
...The S&P 500 has returned 15 per cent under Biden. If you were in a 70/30 stocks/bond portfolio, you are up a limp 5 per cent....
...One market-watcher we spoke to yesterday, Mark Hackett of Nationwide, thinks the S&P 500 is fresh out of technical support, and will need better fundamentals to rise much higher. What say you?...
...But Marko Kolanovic’s latest is weak sauce. Kolanovic is a bit of a rock star in sellside circles....
...Some, like JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic, think stocks will push through the hard part in the first half of 2023, and will rebound to finish the year....
...Marko Kolanovic, a JPMorgan strategist, said the rally had reached most corners of the market....
...Amazon and Tesla together make up 36 per cent of the S&P consumer discretionary sector, and they are down 58 and 49 per cent, respectively, this year....
...It has increased revenue at a five-year compound annual rate of 17 per cent, and has a five-year average return on capital of 16 per cent, according to S&P Capital IQ....
...JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic has been one of the most vocal proponents of this view....
...The S&P 500 stock index closed 2.2 per cent higher, building on Tuesday’s gains to record its biggest two-day increase since April 2020....
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