Hints and tips:
...Where there is real risk of loss to even patient and volatility-tolerant investors, the market has mostly kept its head: It would be nice if spreads were wider, and at its current price corporate bond prices...
...Many investors are hunting for distressed opportunities, with prices for older offices down as much as 50 per cent from their recent peaks, according to one broker....
...“I do think that the market is a little complacent,” said Kevin Loome, a high-yield portfolio manager at T Rowe Price....
...The chart below, courtesy of Marty Fridson of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, makes the point....
...The bank agreed the GreenSky acquisition in 2021 for $2.2bn but closed the deal at a price of $1.7bn in March 2022....
...Valuations have also been supported this year by a shrinking market, investors say, with upgrades to investment-grade territory and relatively low new issuance anchoring prices at artificial levels....
...Rates have jumped without zombies threatening stability, partly because profits have been strong and asset prices have held up....
...But, what Marty McFly said in Back to the Future about rock and roll music applies to Millennial housing affordability today: “I guess you guys aren’t ready for that yet....
...(Virtually every episode of rising default rates in the high-yield bond market is explained by either recession or plunging oil prices, Marty Fridson of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors points out.)...
...Marty Chavez, former head of the bank’s securities division, joined Sixth Street in 2021....
...“He has his work cut out for him — the ratings and profits are down,” said Marty Kaplan, a professor of communication and journalism at the University of Southern California....
...“It’s asymmetric,” said Marty Fridson, a veteran high-yield investor and chief investment officer at Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors....
...Current high-yield spreads “are an ongoing mystery”, said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at investment firm Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors....
...It’s an extraordinary feeling — the closest I’ll come to emulating Marty McFly on his hoverboard in Back to the Future....
...The decline reflects a sharp increase in prices....
...The price of a typical home rose 32 per cent in Normal between January 2017 and January 2023, according to Zillow....
...Data on Thursday showed that the US consumer price index eased for a sixth consecutive month in December, to 6.5 per cent....
...Excluding the effect of the big fall in lumber prices, the decline was only 2.3 per cent....
...(Ethan Wu) Junk spreads Everyone’s favourite credit-spread maven, Marty Fridson of Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, published a comment on Monday that caught our eye....
...‘rates are going down rather than up, so I want to be in sooner rather than later,” said Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors....
...“Now you see those humongous prices: hedge funders want to buy art at any price....
...“While independent contractors have an important role in our economy, we have seen in many cases that employers misclassify their employees as independent contractors,” labour secretary Marty Walsh said...
...Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors, said the high-yield market “does not have a great record for alerting you well in advance of a recession....
...He sort of wrote the book on this,” says Marty Burger, chief executive of Silverstein Properties, which owns the World Trade Center, among other properties....
...The corporate bond market is also showing increasing signs of strain, according to Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann, Livian, Fridson Advisors....
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