Hints and tips:
...And as Chronert points out, S&P 500 performance this year has been notably correlated with economic surprises (his chart): The simultaneously strong market momentum and delirious sentiment doesn’t worry...
...“These data will support the hawks” at the ECB, said Tomasz Wieladek, an economist at investor T Rowe Price....
...I don’t think this is quite right....
...LSEG hasn’t split out earnings in its latest accounts, but S&P Global says its indices generated net profits at $925mn in 2023, and MSCI said they clocked in at $1.1bn....
...“It’s more of a confession that growth isn’t going to come roaring back than anything,” he added....
...The failure of higher rates to pop bubbles (when stocks someone doesn’t own rise a lot in value) is a source of continual annoyance....
...It’s just that we don’t have any strong convictions about the macro environment....
...So everyone piled in and production shot up, but near-term demand hasn’t materialised....
...You can’t, as they say, make this stuff up....
...Below is the trailing P/E ratio on the S&P 500: There are other signs of dizziness out there. Some individual stocks have gone bananas....
...The P/E relative of the stock on UBS 2026E EPS (against the market) goes to a record high of 152% on the UBS forecast of earnings. 2....
...If this number were below $5bn Lyft would have a 6 per cent margin, ceteris paribus, though ceteris paribus really isn’t how P&L statements work....
...The S&P 500 hit another all-time high yesterday. More importantly, Trump Media & Technology Group rose another 14 per cent, right after we wrote that it looked a bit overvalued....
...This has a lot to do with a steady increase in long-term interest rates and inflation that wasn’t declining quickly enough. The slogan was “higher for longer”, and stocks didn’t like it one bit....
...Its free float of just 8 per cent doesn’t meet the 15 per cent minimum required....
...Only five per cent of S&P 500 companies have price-to-book ratios below that critical level, according to JPX....
...“We’re positioning the company for the long-term health of the business and the market doesn’t necessarily operate that way,” she said....
...“I honestly don’t know what levers he pulls. There is no new product, and he won’t take further price action.”...
...The one thing they haven’t tried [is] fiscal stimulus. Since then, we’ve seen more fiscal support....
...Uber’s return on capital last year was 3.1 per cent, according to S&P Capital IQ (ROC is basically after-tax profit divided by shareholders’ equity plus debt)....
...That sounds like it might be interesting but probably isn’t....
...These funds don’t engage with companies, they rely on third-party rating agencies’ opinions, and can’t divest if they’re not happy....
...If your borrowing needs are big, banks just aren’t up for the job, and there’s plenty of debt that needs to be refinanced in the coming years (almost $2tn of corporate debt in 2025 alone)....
...Its forward P/E is just 15. We’re still searching for good stock picks. If you’ve got a candidate, email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Current consensus revenue estimates stand at $1.12bn, according to S&P Capital IQ....
International Edition