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...We’re on track to grow at a 2.5 per cent rate in the first quarter, according to the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow service, above the long-run trend and an impressive addition to the strong growth record....
...Citi expects Nvidia and Eli Lilly alone will make up a quarter of S&P 500 earnings growth in 2024. How’s everyone feeling about this rally? Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com Apple the formerly magnificent Only five of the Magnificent 7 tech stocks are performing magnificently in 2024....
...You’re looking at like a 4 per cent dividend yield on the FTSE 100 nearly versus, you know, 1 per cent on the S&P 500....
...On a forward P/E basis, the S&P 500’s 2021 (harmonic) average was 23, versus an average of 22 in the past four months and 18 in the past three decades....
...Back in the 1973-74 Middle East crisis, in association with an Opec embargo, oil rose 300 per cent. The S&P 500 index halved....
...But one analyst has 130 times p/e. Robert ArmstrongOh. For their target. Anna MutohSo expectations are very high. Target, yeah. Ethan WuYeah. That’s nuts. So Amazon is the dominant ecommerce player....
...(Robert laughs) So the S&P is up about 10 per cent this year. Some of the Mag Seven are up even more. Nvidia up almost 100 per cent, Microsoft chugging along, Alphabet....
...In the four months since then, the S&P 500 has risen 24 per cent. The Mag 7 is up 29 per cent (when cap-weighted, like the S&P) better than the index, but not in a different universe....
...We’re gonna talk about how that’s going on in the US but also in Europe and Japan. What’s pushed this over the line is that you weren’t here. (Laughter) Robert ArmstrongBenign neglect....
...What is the trailing P/E ratio of the top-10 stocks in the S&P 500 today? They are more overvalued than the top-10 were in the tech bubble....
...We’re still living in interesting times. One good read American big-box store sells lots and lots of small bits of metal....
...The problem with the P/E and other metrics is they don’t bring in growth and the rest of the components of value....
...because we’re interested....
...Walsh’s career has an accidental element to it. When the stylist started to work in the fashion department of Vogue in 2006, she didn’t know her current job was, well, a job....
...Robert ArmstrongThe biggest companies. Ethan WuYeah. On that basis, S&P 500 Equal Weight, in the past decade, returns have been 10 per cent, which is pretty respectable....
...So far this week, the S&P 500 is off 2 per cent. More Federal Reserve officials are putting zero rate cuts in 2024 on the table....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...(Robert laughs) We’re not there yet. All right, Rob, we’ll be back in a moment with Long/Short. [MUSIC PLAYING] Welcome back....
...But value stocks are at their best in a post-recession expansion, and we’re not in one of those....
...I am unconvinced that Reform UK are actually interested in . . . Robert ShrimsleyAre you implying they’re not serious, Miranda? Miranda GreenI am....
...“There it is, you’re caught . . ....
...If you’re the hacker, claim credit: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Value revisited: where are the cheap stocks?...
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