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...Governor Andrew Bailey dismissed disappointing inflation numbers to say disinflation was on track, while his deputy Sir Dave Ramsden said inflation could stay close to the BoE’s target for three years....
...Recommendation number six again demonstrated the dysfunction of the BoE and contained my favourite chart of the report....
...If Andrew Bailey again wants to boast that the BoE was ahead of the pack, I would not rule out a BoE cut in May. This would be a repeat of December 2021....
...If the BoE waited for assets to mature, it would be hanging around a very long time....
...It has been a very long time since I have been able to say that about the BoE....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Crippling uncertainties Last week, I dissected the Federal Reserve’s uncertainties in its forecasts, concluding that if these are genuinely held, the world’s most powerful...
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Forecasts vs scenarios A particular bugbear of mine occurs when officials paint some picture of the future and say: “This is a scenario not a forecast.”...
...The BoE is preparing to ditch its forecast fan charts, says Sam Fleming. In my view this is at least a decade too late....
...Huw Pill, the bank’s chief economist, said on Monday that it was now a question of when, not if, the BoE lowers rates, but he said the time was not yet appropriate....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Sticky services No one should care too much about movements in individual components of inflation, but many economists exempt the broad category of services from this rule...
...That is much higher than the previous pre-2020 peak, the BoE noted....
...But, with the BoE, you never know....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Worrying about wages There is little today’s central bankers like to do more than worry about excessive wage rises. This is not a criticism....
...chris.giles@ft.com...
...BoE: ‘La la la, we’re not listening’ The BoE did not produce new forecasts this month because it works to a different schedule....
...Chris Giles: What’s causing the stickiness in inflation?...
...Please send your thoughts, comments and ideas to chris.giles@ft.com....
...Email me at chris.giles@ft.com. Before you write that email, get your diaries out for the latest instalment of the FT’s (free to view) Global Boardroom virtual conference....
...That comes back to this persistence issue that [BoE governor] Andrew [Bailey] is emphasising.”...
...The BoE would find another interest rate rise difficult to justify....
...Email me at chris.giles@ft.com....
...The error prompted an apology from then BoE governor Mark Carney, who also announced an independent review of the cause of the problem and the BoE’s response....
...Please email me with your own pet hates at chris.giles@ft.com. 1: The logical fallacy of long transitory The adjective “transitory” to describe this inflation episode was officially “retired” by Jay Powell...
...Bailey added that he expected inflation to return to the BoE’s 2 per cent target “somewhere near the end of next year”....
...In the wake of the BoE decision, expectations of rate rises were almost flat at 5.25 per cent or a little above....
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