Hints and tips:
...Land cannot be moved to evade taxation and the ONS estimates the value of land and assets-over-land to be significantly more than £5tn compared to a GDP of a little more than £2tn....
...Refining capacity is to shrink c.30% by 2030, from c.1.7mbd to 1.5mbd by 2025 then to 1.2mbd by 2030....
...Savings are expected to be greater than £100m vs. previous guidance of c£100m....
...The group expects land cash spend of £850m (vs. historical levels of c.£1.0bn), which includes £492m payment of committed land creditors this year....
...Management has taken important actions since March: deferring £1bn of capex due in the next three years; raising c£2bn of debt financing and £419m in an equity issuance; and launching a major cost-savings...
...However, based on management guidance for FY20/21 EBITDA of c.€14.5bn and the consensus net debt estimate of €43.2bn, VOD’s net debt/EBITDA will still be at 3.0x after two years of the three-year guidance...
...This stronger foundation should be supported through 2020 as management bandwidth improves further (with only one remaining C-suite role to be filled)....
...Management’s latest central scenario now generates c£200m better profit and cash flow than the last one....
...It gets straight to the point: We now assume an L-shaped RevPAR recovery (previously V-shaped), based on Jefdata consumer surveys, corporate guidance and industry forecasts. .....
...There has been demand for grocery delivery however negative margin discourages management to offer the service....
...Looked at differently, Cyclicals are still priced for a V-shaped recovery, which might not happen....
...Bank of America is pushing Berkeley, the sector’s leading land hoarder and builder of high-end luxury apartments in places like Enfield, Haringey and West Ham....
...We like the fact that management is pragmatic....
...British Land, same....
...Rate relief drops away in FY22 so the recovery profile, in EPS at least, is not V-shaped....
...CPI-linked utilities (e.g....
...Helpful, then, that Halfords is the market leader in bicycle sales (c.25% market share) and PACs (c.15%)....
...WPP will also reduce is planned capex from £400m to v£300m....
...We expect organic declines of c.-3% for FY 2020. Both companies saw flat organic growth in March and are benefitting from short-term additional demand, especially in the US (c.30% of sales)....
...V, U, or L? The nature of Covid-19 growth impact means that some elements – e.g., production resumption, inventory restocking, and travel normalisation – would lend a natural rebound to growth....
...The ONS estimates the value of land and assets-over-land to be over £5tn compared to a GDP of c£2tn....
...Heading into what we anticipate to be a c....
...ecosystems and the potential for commercial (re)insurers to engage with new technology (e.g., IoT and autonomous cars)....
...We forecast c.10-15% FY20 earnings decline in Construction, but Support Services should be more resilient....
...Today's PMI leaves us in no-man's land. Neither strong enough to rule out a Jan cut, nor weak enough to guarantee it. It's finely balanced, but we change our call....
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