Hints and tips:
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. The inflation narrative could flip fast Jay Powell is worried about inflation again....
...Ethan here, with some professional news. After two-and-a-half years, this is my last edition of Unhedged....
...[MUSIC PLAYING] Michela Tindera Our next question is from a listener named Mike Powell. His question is: what is your single biggest investment regret? Robert Armstrong Katie, you go first....
...Ethan WuI love my job. Katie MartinThen what you’re not going to get is Jay Powell saying no, sure, we’re gonna start cutting rates in March....
...The real game will be parsing Chair Jay Powell’s words with obsessive precision, for hints about rate cuts to come....
...I don’t want to suggest that Powell managed to jinx the market. Rather, his comments may have represented peak optimism....
...Powell is tantalisingly close to securing the soft landing, and his legacy. Disagree? Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com. Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com...
...In the meantime, email me: ethan.wu@ft.com. Friday interview: Armen Panossian Credit markets are booming....
...Jay Powell. He’s the man, right? Ethan WuRob, I think your Americentrism is showing right now. Robert ArmstrongIt is....
...But on both counts, Powell pointed to good news....
...Powell, by the way — and a few others we came up with on the spot....
...Jay Powell’s job is rarely ever so hard, or so interesting. Email me: ethan.wu@ft.com. Calling for recession is contrarian now At the start of 2023, it was banal to forecast a near-term recession....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com....
...If you still think Apple is cheap, tell us why: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Are we there yet? Market moods and market narratives change quickly....
...(Ethan Wu) One good read James Mackintosh argues against bubble talk....
...Here, for example, is Fed chair Jay Powell, in a speech yesterday in New York: [The increase in long-term yields] is really happening in term premiums, which is the compensation for holding longer-term...
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. Powell talks tighter financial conditions An economy in rude health buys a central bank time to wait....
...We’ll be keeping an ear out as Powell speaks on Wednesday. (Ethan Wu) Are we in a profits recession? A little while ago Bloomberg published a short piece which has stuck in my mind ever since....
...Ethan here; Rob returns next week....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. The Fed We’ve written several times now that inflation has hit an inflection point and is on the decline....
...Powell sees QT continuing for a while, until the Fed’s balance sheet, at $7.9tn, starts looking a bit more “normal” than it does now....
...Email us: robert.armstrong@ft.com and ethan.wu@ft.com. An appropriately humble Fed Jay Powell’s dislike of the summary of economic projections becomes clearer with each Fed press conference....
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