Hints and tips:
...But Powell’s stern sounds yesterday could easily turn serene tomorrow....
...To mark this moment while it doesn’t yet feel like a mistake, we’ve added a festive Jerome Powell-themed design to our Redbubble store: — Jerome Powell, Christmas Saviour (black text)— Jerome Powell, Christmas...
...“Speakers today like Kashkari and [Austan] Goolsbee may be trying to push the center away from Powell’s views....
...Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve dithered on raising interest rates until it had no choice but to act....
...These have picked up markedly in recent years, from a low of about 400,000 b/d in the pandemic year of 2020 to about 1.4mn b/d recently, according to Richard Bronze at Energy Aspects....
...“The risk was that the market would keep rallying and that they’d underperform.”...
...To have renewed tightening, we’d probably have to see the US labour market heat up more....
...The description of the final weeks of Emily’s life is almost unbearably moving: “All my life I’d withstood any damage inflicted on me, even by my own hand, felt sure that I would always recover,” she reflects...
...Axel’s chart below shows, in dark blue, the term premium lagged five years and, in light blue, the how much more you’d earn holding a five-year bond over taking the short-term rate....
...Talking of inflation, my colleague Martin Wolf has an excellent tour d’horizon of the new world of elevated public debt that we have entered, and its potential inflationary impact....
...“To get inflation down to 2 per cent, we think you’d need to see wage growth at 3.5 per cent and unemployment rise to around 4.5 per cent.” “We think there will be a recession in 2024....
...“This is more square footage than I’d have needed,” he admits. “So I wanted to have an area where I could showcase finished work, and have a little kitchenette, as well as the kiln and tools.”...
...He later added the Fed would not wait until inflation had returned to 2 per cent to begin to cut rates because “you’d want to be reducing restriction on the economy well before” that point “so you don’t...
...The US’s stint as global policeman peaked with the D-Day landings. D-Day saved Europe, but it was arguably an act of American altruism. Had Hitler won in Europe, the US might have thrived in isolation....
...Email me: chris.giles@ft.com Stephen D King on inflation Earlier this year, Stephen D King published an acclaimed book, We Need to Talk About Inflation, outlining lessons he thought we needed to learn...
...And yeah, I mean, Jay Powell knows better than I do whether they’ve got that right. So, again, it’s not just Powell and the Fed....
...I took his class and then TA’d it [worked as a teaching assistant] for two years. Every year he’d look at the class and go: “Markets are almost assuredly not perfectly efficient,” and you’d get a gasp....
...Banerjee can’t have been alone because its writer, Phoebe Eclair-Powell, did win. “What I loved was its treating all the characters with a great deal of empathy,” he says....
...And you’d have been worrying about inflation a year and a half before Jay Powell said it was “probably a good time to retire” the “transitory” label: Monetarism, the idea that changes in the quantity of...
...And so I think we need to take Fed chair Powell at his word....
...Up until the Powell pivot in 2018-19 [when Jay Powell’s Federal Reserve switched from raising to lowering rates], tech wasn’t at a particularly substantial P/E premium relative to the market....
...He hounded Jay Powell via Twitter, but didn’t countermand his decisions as the Federal Reserve chair....
...The Hong Kong court’s appointment of Eddie Middleton and Tiffany Wong, from the restructuring firm Alvarez & Marsal, as Evergrande’s liquidators should at least provide new information about the developer...
...“We needed a big month to make sure we’d meet our end-year target,” said Olivia Lynch, head of tax markets at consultancy KPMG. “It augurs well for next year.”...
...As you’d also expect, the impact was the greatest on the first day of announcement, with negligible effects from subsequent reiterations or new but similar announcements (zoomable version)....
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