Hints and tips:
...Following announced dividend cuts we see BP/RDS with peer-leading break-evens (~$40/bbl), with TOT/CVX sub $50/bbl ($45/$48 per bbl) and XOM at an outstanding $58/bbl....
...$40/bbl this year reducing to <$35/bbl 2021+)....
...On our house view of 50p/therm natural gas and US$60/bbl long-run oil, we estimate it could be worth c£1.2bn....
...Via Bloomberg: Moderna Inc. said its experimental vaccine for Covid-19 could be available to a select few as soon as this fall, ahead of expectations for a commercial release in a year....
...The fall from $147.50 to $36.25 bbl on Brent in 2008 took six months. The fall from $115.71 to last night’s $39.73 bbl has taken 18 months....
...They could sustain the pain of $60/bbl oil for a while, but definitely not forever....
...If they had moved it by pipeline, it would have sold at the price at the inland pipeline junction of Cushing, Oklahoma, which has been consistently running $13/bbl lower than Brent....
...Brent crude has jumped $7 a barrel this month to more than $118/bbl, and on Wednesday rose even higher, to $119.99/bbl....
...Near-term crude oil price risk is becoming more symmetric Although potential contagion risk in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remains elevated and has pushed prices above $125/bbl, at these price...
...A back of the envelope calculation suggests that if Japan were to switch all its nuclear power generation to oil-fuelled power stations (assuming it has the capacity) this would add approximately 0.5 m bbl...
...Front-month WTI lost 2% on the week to $83.24/bbl, while the equivalent Brent contract outperformed, actually rising by 1.37% w/w to $85.99/bbl, though it came in the firing line on Friday nonetheless....
...Even at the zenith of the crisis, prices hardly fell below $70/bbl....
...“While some see recovering demand having been sufficient to support the $70-80/bbl prices evident in the last eight months, they nonetheless raise questions over the sustainability of prices markedly higher...
...Iran stored as much as 30 millions bbls of heavy crude on tankers in Q2 2008 and we believe the volume is up to his level once again....
...This continued collapse also suggests the underlying demand required to maintain crude prices at the $80/bbl has not yet arrived....
...WTI is at $7.20/bbl (above the first three quarters of the year), the differential weakened from its recent peak of more than $8/bbl in mid-October to the current $6.00-6.50/bbl....
...This far exceeds the amount of gas arriving in Britain from Holland via the BBL pipeline....
...The need for more storage is particularly pressing for countries where production is in decline, including the Netherlands and the UK, which are linked together by the BBL pipeline....
...Our economists believe that a jump in oil prices to the $70-80/bbl range could start to pose some meaningful risks to economic growth in OECD countries....
...of $70/bbl to break even....
...That is a stockdraw of about 38 myn bbls, including a draw of 16 myn bbls in the stocks afloat in the US Gulf....
...August Brent prices, however, increased by similar amounts to $60.69/bbl, increasing its premium to WTI to $1....
...Thus, we believe that WTI prices need to pull back to the mid- $40/bbl range in the near term to shore up demand and bolster current fundamentals, setting the stage for a stronger recovery in 2H2009....
...about weakness to come Tuesday on the WTI front spread as the USO WTI ETF had to roll in a single day a record long position from Feb to Mar and indeed the Feb/Mar WTI contango widened by about 60 cents/bbl...
...A truly precipitous fall would be needed to hamper growth and threaten core government spending: Saudi needs around $55/bbl to balance its budget....
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