Hints and tips:
...The S&P 500 is not yet quite as expensive as it was in the zero-rate, fiscal bonanza, everyone-has-loads-of-cash glory days of 2021. But it is getting closer....
...Here are the final scores, in the absolute lowest-tech way we could manage: 1. Quizteam Lagarde (49 points) 2 (tied). Some Quiz Team (47 points) 2 (tied). Random Walkers (47 points) 4....
...High-yield (“junk”) bonds pay 8 per cent, and the lowest-quality triple-C junk yields 13 per cent....
...First, the chart above is an absolute mess unless you’re looking at a single local government borrower — so use the filter....
...Then I make my way down the plush C-suite corridors back to the elevator. Follow This is a movement of 9,000 shareholders in oil and gas companies....
...Wilson looks at forward P/E and forward P/sales ratios, comparing current levels to their post-financial crisis medians. Few look cheap....
...Hence we think share price underperformance of wholesale banks such as DBK (4.7x P/E 2024E), BARC (3.9x P/E 2024E), BNP (6.9x P/E 2024E) as well as by some Money Center Banks is overdone....
...“One of them has to be the sense that hourly workers and others can’t be secure about their futures, while the C-suite is doing extremely well.”...
...The white-truffle sausages in autumn and early winter are the absolute best....
...They illustrate their argument by comparing the paths to success of the richest people in Mexico and the USA (p. 39)....
...Better buying and significant cost reduction; there is an opportunity to reduce costs both in absolute terms and as a percent of sales....
...Because of its merger with Sprint in Apr-20, TMUS's portfolio of spectrum below 6 GHz is now c.3x that of Verizon and c.2x that of AT&T....
...At 28.7x P/E CY21, we move to Sell from Neutral. Burberry has already underperformed peers YTD... Burberry’s share price has underperformed the luxury peers by c.12% year to date....
...to the MSCI) and Rémy Cointreau a significant outperformer (+14% absolute, +28% relative)....
...The slack is only partly taken up by France P&C which is over distributing....
...According to Bloomberg, consensus is currently forecasting PBT of c£185m (giving EPS of c6.9p) in FY 2020/21 and c.£340m (12.7p) in FY 2021/22....
...In terms of the impact, we expect that this will continue to drive prices up for the near future, while the insurers most exposed are Swiss Re (via P&C Re and Corporate Solutions), Allianz (via AGCS), AXA...
...Next currently trades at c.10.5x FY20 P/E but doesn’t offer its usual strong cash returns currently....
...The P/E troughed first in the GFC, then P and finally, much later, E (Figure 2). Earnings estimates do not turn until c.10 weeks after the trough in the market....
...We believe central banks will permanently depress real bond yields relative to GDP growth, and therefore that the equity risk premium model is the appropriate model to use, rather than absolute P/E multiples...
...In deep value territory: Stocks are trading at 30-year absolute P/B lows and near relative 2008/09 lows (43). HEI and SGO screen as particularly cheap....
...However, the sales unwind into 2H20-1H21 could be significant, which is a risk given a 2021e P/E ratio of almost 27x....
...In Russia, our preferred pick remains Rosneft (O/P, TP $6.5/GDR from $7.0/GDR)....
...We do now expect that Shell has cut its dividend to a level that will allow it to grow in absolute terms over time....
...Citi’s Q4’20 forecast for parcel volumes is +9% (vs. consensus of c.+6%) and in FY’21 Citi expects +13% (vs. consensus of c.+8%)....
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