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...Futures markets now indicate a roughly 50 per cent probability of a first rate cut by June, down from an almost 66 per cent chance on Thursday, according to CME FedWatch....
...At the start of 2024 the probability was less than 10 per cent....
...Figure 2, then, which has probabilities: Moves higher in bond yields and short-term inflation expectations align with a signal of persistent labor market tightness to nudge up the probability of the “boil...
...Renters estimated a 40 per cent probability of ever purchasing a home, the lowest since the survey first published results in 2015. Low inventory has helped to push up US home prices....
...The probability of the first ECB cut being delivered by June has fallen to 75 per cent, having been fully priced last month....
...Traders in swaps markets moved to price a 67 per cent probability of the first interest rate cut by June, down from 75 per cent chance earlier in the day....
...Traders in swaps markets raised the probability of an interest rate cut by June to 63 per cent, from 58 per cent, ahead of official figures which showed headline annual inflation was 3.4 per cent in February...
...The market-implied probability of the first rate cut by June rose from under 60 per cent to 65 per cent, while sterling nudged down 0.12 per cent against the dollar to $1.2777....
...The probability of the Federal Reserve starting its rate cut cycle in June has now fallen below 50 per cent, continuing a shift in expectations so far this month....
...It was, of course, the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis that convinced the US and Soviet leaders that they urgently needed to reduce the probability of nuclear war....
...Harry Murphy Cruise, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the RBA’s message was slightly more hawkish but questioned the probability of a rate rise, suggesting that “the threat of future rate hikes can...
...Traders in swaps markets moved to price a 72 per cent probability that the Bank of England will deliver its first quarter-point rate cut by June, up from a 40 per cent chance before official figures on Wednesday...
...Chief economist Jan Hatzius said the bank cut its probability of a near-term US recession to 20 per cent from 25 per cent owing to recent data that has shown the economy to be resilient....
...Markets now put a 70 per cent probability on the first rate cut being delivered by June, up from around 65 per cent before the Office for National Statistics revealed gross domestic product fell 0.3 per...
...Swaps markets put a 95 per cent probability on the first cut coming in August....
...Traders now place a 60 per cent probability of the UK’s first quarter-point interest rate cut being delivered in June, down from a 75 per cent chance ahead of official figures that showed average annual...
...Traders in swaps markets moved to price a 57 per cent probability of the first quarter-point rate cut by May, from a 62 per cent chance ahead of the announcement....
Rise in emissions since original IPCC report 2 years ago now means less than one-third probability of hitting target
...Sterling was up 0.1 per cent against the dollar on Friday morning, while investors attributed a probability of about 45 per cent to a rate cut by June....
...BofA’s team calculate that based on recent pricing, there is about an 80 per cent probability that buying greenbacks in six months time with the loonie, as the Canadian currency is known in markets, would...
...Traders in swaps markets now place an 85 per cent probability of the first rate cut by April, up from around 70 per cent this morning....
...Investors attribute a probability of about 45 per cent to a rate cut by June, roughly the same as before Thursday’s announcement....
...Against this you have only the probability of a comfortable bed, an en-suite bathroom and a smaller bill. I know. It’s a head-scratcher....
...The market-implied probability of the first rate cut coming in May fell to 58 per cent, from over 80 per cent ahead of the inflation figure....
...But stronger than expected US economic data has left traders pricing in the probability of a Fed rate cut by late July at only one-third, compared with a near-50 per cent chance of a BoE cut by June....
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