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...“I think you see the balance of risks on the Fed going slower [in cutting rates] than is priced in but outside the US there is some risk of central banks delivering more than is priced in.”...
...With 130bps of cuts now priced into the Fed Funds futures market through year end 2024, investors have set a high bar for cuts to be delivered....
...But since the green licence plates were introduced in January, the number of foreign luxury vehicles priced at more than Won80mn ($58,000) that were registered as company cars has fallen by 27 per cent,...
A steep rise in salary threshold requirements has forced families to consider leaving the UK
...Markets, however, priced in six cuts and only adjusted their expectations after data showed the US economy — and inflation — remained stronger than anticipated by either the Fed or investors....
...At that point, the scale of monetary easing — whether the six cuts of a quarter of a percentage point each priced in by investors, or the three then and currently projected by the Fed — mattered less because...
...In the US, they have priced in six cuts this year, compared to the three indicated by the Fed’s “dot-plot” of rate projections....
...Ahead of the central bank’s March 20 decision on monetary policy, traders are attaching a 48.6 per cent chance to a quarter-point cut in June, according to Bloomberg data....
...At the end of last year, futures markets had priced in six interest rate cuts for the US in 2024....
...This impacts real economic activity too, with priced-in rate cuts supporting a recovery in housing markets. These factors have reduced the potency of monetary policy in this cycle, and could persist....
...“Oil has already priced in a lot of risk premium,” said Redmond Wong, market strategist at Saxo Markets in Hong Kong....
...Derivatives markets in January priced in as many as six or seven cuts....
...At the end of last year, futures markets had priced in six interest rate cuts for the US in 2024. My own expectations had also become quite optimistic....
...Separately, India’s government signed off on a plan to lower import taxes on some higher-priced, imported electric vehicles....
...For the ECB, they priced in nearly 90bp of cuts — equal to almost an extra quarter-point move....
...Markets have priced 1.25 percentage points in cuts this year, though Lagarde is expected to push back against hopes of early changes....
...In early January, futures traders expected at least six cuts in 2024; now they have priced in between one and two quarter-point cuts....
...The US Federal Trade Commission’s action to ban non-compete agreements has left Wall Street businesses rushing to restructure contracts and find new ways to tie down the high-priced personnel that their...
...On Thursday the interest rate swaps market fully priced in a cumulative cut by year end of around 0.5 percentage points — compared with 0.72 percentage points two days before....
...While the possibility was not fully priced in by the futures market, the rise from 20 per cent odds a week ago is stark....
...The equity market is not priced for economic convergence, for example....
...But for the economy, even flatline spending would mean fiscal policy becomes a headwind to growth....
...The modal outcome this year is still cuts; currently, three are priced in. But other scenarios are looking more likely....
...In the UK, traders expect the Bank of England to move in June with around three cuts priced over 2024....
...A US ban on non-compete agreements has left Wall Street businesses rushing to restructure contracts and find new ways to tie down the high-priced personnel that their business models rely on....
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